A fire at a Russian warehouse destroyed components for hundreds of for Shahed-136 kamikaze drones according to a report yesterday on Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) official page. They do not say how the fire started, but this is one of many such fires in Russia caused by sabotage, incendiary drones or other means. The report states that the warehouse contained the components for 400 Shaheds, all of which were destroyed and suggesting detailed knowledge of the event.
The report also mentions that the components included thermal imaging cameras – a capability not previously known, which in combination with Starlink units also found on Shaheds, suggests Russia has developed a more capable and dangerous version of the attack drone.
Genesis Of The Shaheds
Shahed-136 is a one-way attack drone developed by Iran, with a seven-foot wingspan and carrying a warhead of around 100 pounds to over 600 miles. (A range of up to 1500 miles has been claimed but there is no evidence for this). The piston-driven propeller engine gives it a cruising speed of about 115 mph and earns it the nickname ‘moped’ or ‘lawnmower.’
Initially imported from Iran, Russia has gradually moved to assembling and then producing Shaheds at a giant new facility at Alabuga 600 miles east of Moscow, staffed by cheap labor — a mix of local students and, bizarrely enough, African women tricked into coming to Russia with promised jobs in the hospitality industry.
From zero in 2022, Russia has steadily ramped up Shahed production and is now turning out some two thousand one-way attack drones each month according to Ukrainian intelligence, although some of the drones reported as Shahed may be decoys or smaller low-cost Russian or Chinese drones.
The continued drone onslaught has inflicted huge damage on Ukraine, with three quarters of the electricity infrastructure destroyed by drone and missiles attacks. But the defenses have steadily become more capable, and in November brought down some 95% of the attacking drones with gunfire, missiles, and, increasingly, electronic warfare jamming.
But as the defense evolves, so does the attack.
Shahed Evolution
The Shaheds we see now are generations ahead of those first seen in Ukraine little more than two years ago. Developments include ‘stealth’ coatings making them more difficult to detect, and a series of new warheads tailored to specific targets, and data modems with SIM cards to transmit data via the Ukrainian cellphone network.
The original Shaheds had basic satellite navigation, and the Russian-made versions were upgraded with Komet military-grade navigation unit which is resistant to jamming and spoofing. However, the protection this unit gives appears to have been defeated as the Ukrainian Air Force reports that increasing numbers of Shaheds are being downed by electronic warfare, or redirected back to Russia. It is not surprising then that Russia is looking at Shaheds which do not rely on satellite navigation at all.
Previously some Shaheds had been seen with basic video cameras. The GUR report that they now use thermal imaging cameras may indicate that they are operating a visual navigation system that works at night, recognizing terrain features in the dark by their thermal signatures. Optical navigation is becoming increasingly common as jamming compromises GPS. Earlier this month, U.S. makers Red Cat announced a partnership with Palantir to give its tactical quadcopters the capability, showing that the approach is feasible even for the smallest drones.
This capability would make Shaheds immune to jamming. But the cameras may be there for another reason.
In September, Ukrainian news outlet Defense Express reported the discovery of crashed Shaheds fitted with Starlink satellite communications. This provide long-range communications, allowing the Russian to track their drones in real time and determine which ones are downed before they reach their targets, as well as re-routing them in flight.
Obviously the Russian use of the U.S-made Starlink is highly illegal, but many posts on social media apparently show Russian troops taking delivery of Starlinks, likely through agents in third-party countries.
When combined with a thermal imaging camera, the satellite link would allow the operator to home in precisely on specific targets, especially those with an obvious heat signature such as electricity generation equipment. With real time communication Shaheds can attack moving targets such as shipping, and precision targets such as air defenses. They could also assess the effect of previous strikes.
Shahed Destruction
Taking down Shaheds after they are launched is a completely defensive approach and there is always the risk that some will get through. Even at 95% success, dozens of Shaheds still find their targets each month, and many more crash into inhabited areas. The best solution is to knock out the threat ‘left of launch,’ that is , destroy them on the ground before they become a threat.
This is why the fire at Alabuga is significant. The site has previously been attacked by Ukrainian drones. Whether the fire was caused by agents inside the facility, a long-range sabotage group, or stealthy attack drones, it suggests an increased focus on tackling Russian drones at source.
Ukraine is dramatically increasing its long-range strike arsenal, with a combination of new attack drones, ‘rocket drones’ and cruise missiles; the distinction between drone and cruise missile has blurred into invisibility. These weapons will only make a strategic impact if they can be directed to where they do most good. That fact that the GUR now knows exactly which buildings on the Alabuga site need to be targeted suggests that there will be more fires and explosions in the coming months as the war of drone versus drone becomes increasingly vital.
