Barely a week ago, a sense of inevitability hung over the U.S. presidential election.
Donald Trump’s allies gleefully predicted a landslide victory during a Republican National Convention that felt more like a coronation for a nominee who had just survived an assassination attempt and was promising to unite the country. Democrats, desperate and listless, feared the worst as a diminished President Joe Biden clung to his party’s nomination.
But over the last seven days, a week unlike any other in American history, the 2024 presidential contest has been transformed. And now, just 99 days before Election Day, a fundamentally new race is taking shape featuring new candidates, a new issue focus and a new outlook for both parties.
Vice President Kamala Harris stepped in for Biden last Sunday and quickly smashed fundraising records, took over social media and generated levels of excitement that some Democrats said reminded them of the energy that surrounded Barack Obama’s historic candidacy nearly two decades ago.
“This is potentially Obama on steroids,” said Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, who was among 40,000 participants on a Black Women for Harris call last week.
On the other side, Republicans are suddenly fearful and frustrated as they begin to accept the new reality that Trump’s victory is no sure thing. And as their mood sours, the finger pointing has begun. Some prominent conservatives are openly second-guessing Trump’s vice presidential pick, JD Vance, a little-known Ohio senator with less than two years in office and a well-documented history of provocative statements.
Just 12 days ago, Vance earned a huge ovation as he addressed the RNC in Milwaukee, where there was a strong belief that Trump could do no wrong in the wake of his near-death experience.
“We’re light years away from where we were in Milwaukee,” said Republican National Committee member Henry Barbour, who just a week ago predicted that the GOP might win the national popular vote this fall for the first time since 2004. He’s not so sure anymore.
“The Democrats now have a candidate who can speak, who can attack. They have a weapon,” Barbour said. “They have a path.”
Conventional wisdom is often wrong
The incredible speed with which the election was transformed is a stark reminder that, in the Trump era, little is certain, and the conventional wisdom is often wrong. Even now, the Democrats’ newfound confidence may be premature. Early public polling suggests that Harris starts in a slightly better position against Trump than Biden was just before his withdrawal from the race. But the numbers also point to a very close race in a deeply divided nation.
Meanwhile, there are still more questions than answers about the 99-day sprint that lies ahead.
Harris has yet to select a running mate. Trump has introduced new uncertainty about the prospect of the next debate slated for Sept. 10 and hosted by ABC, arguing that was part of a deal arranged with Biden. Third-party candidates could still take the race in unexpected directions. And more than a billion dollars in political advertising has yet to be broadcast as both parties re-think their message, their policies and their path to 270 electoral votes.
But the shift over the last week is undeniable.
Harris raised a record-smashing $200 million in the seven days since taking over Biden’s campaign, with two-thirds of the haul coming from first-time contributors, her campaign said on Sunday. Over the same period, more than 170,000 volunteers have signed up to help the de facto Democratic nominee with phone banking, canvassing and other get-out-the-vote efforts.
Democrats up and down the ballot have benefited from the unprecedented surge.
John Anzalone, a former Biden pollster, described Harris’ candidacy as “a defibrillator” for Democrats and swing voters across the nation. “We’re back in the game, baby!”
Sen. Tammy Baldwin, a Wisconsin Democrat, did not attend Biden’s four most recent visits to her state this year. But she was at Harris’ side for the vice president’s opening political rally last Wednesday.
Similarly in Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who was Biden’s national campaign co-chair, was unwilling to break away from her book tour to join the president in Michigan at a critical moment earlier in the month. Whitmer will co-headline an event for the Harris campaign in Pennsylvania on Monday, having already campaigned on her behalf in New Hampshire over the weekend.
And the conversation has been profoundly altered.
No longer are Democrats consumed by questions about their nominee’s age and mental acuity. Instead, they’re leaning into issues that allow them to go on offense. As a woman, Harris has focused on the GOP’s fight against abortion rights in a way that Biden could not. And as a former prosecutor, she has seized on Trump’s criminal conviction in New York with confidence.
Harris has also leaned into a more folksy and emotional criticism of Trump and Vance; she and her allies have begun to describe the Republican presidential ticket as “just plain weird.”
Trump has abandoned his magnanimous tone
Meanwhile, a frustrated Trump has abandoned the magnanimous tone he sought to project in the days after an assassin’s bullet nearly ended his life.
“They all say, ‘I think he’s changed. I think he’s changed since two weeks ago. Something affected him,’” Trump told a massive crowd Saturday night in Minnesota. “No, I haven’t changed. Maybe I’ve gotten worse, because I get angry at the incompetence that I witness every single day.”
For now, the Republican former president and his supporters have adopted a kitchen-sink strategy as they figure out which attacks are most effective against their new Democratic opponent.
Some conservatives, especially in the pro-Trump MAGA wing of the party, are calling Harris a “DEI candidate,” referencing “diversity, equity and inclusion” to suggest Democrats only embraced her as the likely nominee because of her gender and race. House leaders on Capitol Hill have discouraged such criticism, which is largely seen as racist and sexist, but the MAGA movement has not relented.
In Minnesota over the weekend, Trump and Vance described Harris as a “radical left lunatic,” who wants to de-fund the police, destroy the American dream, allow immigrants in the country illegally to vote and ban fracking. Harris’ team pushed back against the attacks.
Trump also devoted a substantial amount of his remarks to Biden, seemingly struggling to move on from the opponent he has been fixated on since losing the 2020 election.
Voters who packed into the Minnesota rally were largely upbeat about Trump’s chances this fall — even in their state, which Republicans have lost in every presidential election since 1976. Sensing a shift, however, some questioned whether Harris at the top of the ticket might make the race closer.
“That makes me a little nervous,” said Jim Caldwell, a 59-year-old truck driver who lives in a city about 40 minutes away from St. Cloud. He pointed to the historic nature of Harris’ candidacy that “might bring out more people.”
“People are going to want the first woman,” he said. “I don’t think she’s the one.”
John Jose, a 56-year-old associate pastor from St. Cloud, said he was optimistic, especially because of the upheaval on the Democratic side. He also described the last week or two as “dramatic.”
“I think we need stability right now,” Jose said.
