Nissan Motor has had a bumpy ride over the last several months.
In February, it reported a plunge in profit and cut its outlook for the third time in the past 12 months as it faces declining sales. Merger talks with Honda collapsed and the company is scrambling to slash costs and cut thousands of jobs.
Now it’s bracing for what could be another shock to its business: the tariffs that President Trump is threatening to impose on goods imported from Canada and Mexico. About a third of the nearly one million cars Nissan sold in the United States last year were assembled in Mexican plants.
“If it kicks in,” the auto maker’s chief executive, Makoto Uchida, said in an earnings conference call last month, “that is going to be a huge impact to profit.”
Almost all automakers would be affected by the tariffs. But the impact could fall most heavily on those already facing financial trouble. That includes not just Nissan but Stellantis, the maker of Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram vehicles that is racing to reorganize and streamline its operations.
Mr. Trump has suggested levies of as much as 25 percent on most goods manufactured in Canada and Mexico — both trading partners of the United States and members of a North American trade bloc that has operated essentially as a tariff-free trade zone for the last three decades.
A tariff of that size would significantly increase automakers’ costs, raise the prices consumers pay for new cars and trucks, and disrupt complex supply chains that often involve engines, transmissions and other components crossing borders several times before finished vehicles arrive on dealer lots.
The Trump administration has not yet explained how the tariffs would apply to U.S.-made engines and other parts that are sent to Canadian and Mexican plants before returning to the United States in completed vehicles.
For many automakers and parts suppliers, the tariffs would probably force them to cut jobs and production, and rethink their manufacturing strategies in North America.
Anderson Economic Group, a consulting firm in East Lansing, Mich., estimates that tariffs of 25 percent would add $1,000 to $4,000 to the price of a new vehicle, and as much as $10,000 if manufacturers are unable to take steps to reduce the impact.
“Manufacturers and suppliers are going to get stuck eating some of the cost that is imposed on them in a hasty tariff, as sticker prices on retail cars and existing sales contracts cannot be changed immediately,” the firm’s chief executive, Patrick Anderson, said.
Last week, Stellantis reported that net income in 2024 fell 70 percent, to 5.5 billion euros, or $5.7 billion. Its chief executive resigned late last year and the company may not have a replacement for several more months.
In a recent earnings call, John Elkann, the auto maker’s chairman, said that last year “is a year we are not proud of.”
Mr. Elkann acknowledged that the tariffs could make a turnaround harder for Stellantis. About a third of its highly profitable Ram pickups are assembled in a plant in Saltillo, Mexico. It also makes two Jeep models at a second Mexican plant, in Toluca. It makes Chrysler Pacifica minivans at a plant in Windsor, Ontario, and is scheduled to begin making the Dodge Charger in the same factory this year. A second plant, in Brampton, Ontario, is being retooled, with plans to make Jeeps there when it reopens.
Mr. Elkann said the company was preparing a series of measures to limit the impact of tariffs, but declined to provide details. It is possible that the automaker could increase Ram production in its U.S. truck plants and cut output from Saltillo.
“We are prepared and have different scenarios in place,” Mr. Elkann said. “Which of these scenarios will play out is premature for us to discuss.”
Like Stellantis, General Motors makes a significant portion of its pickup trucks in Mexico, in addition to the Chevrolet Blazer and GMC Terrain sport utility vehicles. It has said it could soften the blow of any tariffs by adjusting its production to make more vehicles in U.S. plants and import fewer from Mexico and Canada.
But G.M. is on much stronger financial footing than other large automakers. The company’s sales have been growing in North America, its most profitable market, and it has been scaling back struggling divisions, including its operations in China, and has shuttered its self-driving taxi division, Cruise.
Ford Motor — another manufacturer in the midst of a turnaround — makes the Mustang Mach-E electric vehicle in Mexico. It also has a plant in Canada that is scheduled to start making large pickup trucks next year. While a majority of its models are assembled in U.S. plants., it relies on Mexican plants and suppliers for a quarter or more of the parts that go into many of its models.
Ford’s chief executive, Jim Farley, said in a recent investor presentation that tariffs would “blow a hole” in the U.S. auto industry.
Volkswagen could also feel a squeeze from tariffs as it works to cut costs and reinvigorate its bottom line.
In 2024, Volkswagen sold more than 230,000 Mexican-made vehicles in the United States, about 60 percent of its sales in the country, the company said.
That includes three of Volkswagen’s top-selling vehicles in the United States — the Jetta sedan and the Taos and Tiguan S.U.V.s. The company has one factory in the United States, in Chattanooga, Tenn., where it makes other S.U.V.s.
For Nissan, tariffs could force a broad reshaping of its manufacturing footprint. New levies on goods made in Canada and Mexico would raise Nissan’s costs at a time when it is scrambling to slash expenses.
Amid a global slump in sales, the automaker reported a loss of 14.1 billion yen, or $93.6 million, for the three-month period from October through December, compared with a profit of ¥29.1 billion in the same period in 2023.
The company also revised down its outlook, saying it expected a loss of ¥80 billion in the fiscal year that ends March 31.
As part of its turnaround plan, Nissan aims to cut global production by about 20 percent, which would include closing three plants and shedding some 9,000 workers. Since ending merger talks with Honda, the company has been looking for a new partner or investor to support its recovery effort.
Mr. Trump’s proposed tariffs would complicate that task. Last year, Nissan sold more than 300,000 Mexican-made cars in the United States. They include the Sentra, Versa and Kicks models.
Mr. Uchida said Nissan could shift production of those models to plants in Japan, a country Mr. Trump has not targeted for new tariffs — at least so far.
“Some of these models could be produced in Japan,” he said. “So that’s one backup plan to respond to the possible 25 percent tariff.”
