Tropical Storm Beryl is right on the doorstep of the United States. It is already appearing on U.S. weather radar and has been quite the persistent storm as it tracked across the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. The storm impacted the Caribbean region as a major hurricane. Before Beryl, we had not seen a Category 5 storm this early in the hurricane season. It ultimately moved into the Yucatan region of Mexico where it weakened to a tropical storm due to wind shear, land interactions, and a heavy dose of dry air. Beryl is now over the Gulf of Mexico and is within a day (as of the time of writing Sunday morning) of making landfall in the U.S. Here are three things you need to know right now.
Beryl Is Going To Make Landfall In Texas
According to the 7 am CDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Beryl has sustained winds of 60 mph and is moving towards the northwest at 12 mph. The storm is ultimately expected to make a more northward turn and make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston Bay. This is also a good time to remind readers that the cone conveys that the center of the storm tracks within it about sixty six percent of the time. NHC writes in its morning discussion, “It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 24-36 hours is about 30-50 miles and the average intensity error is close to one category.” That is a cautionary note to avoid focusing on “dots” or “lines.” Hurricanes are broad storms with wide-reaching impacts.
Beryl Is Likely Going To Strengthen Before Landfall
Why is Beryl likely to intensify before making landfall? Waters just off the Texas coast are quite warm, and wind shear conditions are more favorable for development. Given the particulary high sea surface temperatures just off the Texas coast, I cannot rule out intensification, even rapidly, right up until landfall. Rapid intensification is defined as gaining about 35 mph of wind speed increase in less than a twenty-four hour period. Some model guidance estimates that Beryl is two to three times more likely to undergo rapid intensification as compared to climatological expectations.
The Impacts From Beryl Will Extend Beyond The Texas Coast
If you read my posts regularly, I first started talking about Beryl affecting the U.S. in an essay written on June 29th. The time draws nigh for the U.S. with Beryl. The National Weather Service Houston posted a great set of graphics that highlights the suite of impacts rather than category. I have argued repeatedly that such maps below should be the focus rather than cones or category numbers. Potential impacts from Beryl include wind, storm surge, flooding, and tornadoes.
I am particularly concerned about flooding in southeast Texas and perhaps further inland as well. The central part of the storm and associated rainbands could drop significat amounts of rainfall along the track. While certainly not a Hurricane Harvey (2017) scenario, the impacts of Beryl and wet soils in the region from previous rains amplify the flood threat. Meteorologist Craig Setzer’s post on X is provides great context.
A college friend attending the Alpha Kappa Alpha Boule meeting in Dallas inquired about whether they would be affected by Beryl. The short answer is “Probably so.” In the rainfall graphic above, it shows that the band of significant rainfall extends well into Texas, Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois on late Monday into Tuesday as the storm weakens to a tropical depression. Conditions will likely also be a bit windy along the track. According to NHC, the remnants of Beryl ultimately phase with a mid-latitude trough in the Ohio Valley. By that point, the storm will likely be post-tropical cyclone but will take its place in the history books.
