Markets rose broadly across the globe this morning on news of more peace talks in the Middle East. Oil is at $95 per barrel, pretty much where it was yesterday. S&P 500 futures were flat this morning before the open in New York. The Index closed up 0.8% yesterday to hit a new record high at 7,023. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.38% and is also at a record high. South Korea’s KOSPI was up 2.21%. China’s CSI 300 rose 1.1%. In Europe the Stoxx 600 ticked up 0.11% and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was flat in early trading.
ONE BIG THING
Anti-AI groups in the spotlight after the attack on Sam Altman
The firebombing and attempted murder of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has drawn attention to two anti-AI groups linked to the alleged arsonist: Pause AI and Stop AI. Both have condemned the violence and said the suspect is not a member of their organizations. But who are these groups, and what do they want? Fortune’s Sharon Goldman talked to Pause AI US leader Holly Elmore, the Berkeley-based activist with a PhD from Harvard. The group has “no reason to think that this person had much to do with us,” she said, he “didn’t get any further in onboarding or having any official role.”
IRAN
Peace is in danger of breaking out—but the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked
The U.S. and Iran are considering a two-week extension to the ceasefire, Bloomberg reported. Separately, President Trump said the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will engage in talks for the first time in 34 years. Lebanon, however, denied talks were happening this morning. Context: Iran once denied peace talks were on the cards, too—right before its officials showed up in Islamabad to discuss an end to the war.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains almost totally blocked. The U.S. military says zero ships have passed their blockade, which began on Monday, and 10 ships have been forced back through the Strait and into the Gulf.
- Cat and mouse: Two sanctioned ships linked to Iran did manage to sneak through the Strait by hugging the coast of Iran, per Bloomberg.
- The Rich Starry, the Chinese ship Fortune is tracking that made a failed escape attempt on April 14, appears to be sitting just off Iran’s Qeshm Island, near the entrance of the Strait today, according to MarineTraffic.com (map below).
- Trump said: “China is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. I am doing it for them, also – And the World. This situation will never happen again.” Read his statement here.
Why gas prices don’t fall even if you have energy independence
The U.S. remains bountifully supplied with almost record-high crude oil and natural gas production. President Donald Trump has touted the nation’s “energy independence.” So why is the average price for a gallon of gasoline $4.11?
“The problem is that oil is a global commodity. We may have plenty of oil—there’s no shortage of U.S. oil—but energy independence is somewhat of a fallacy,” said Jim Wicklund, veteran oil analyst and managing director at the PPHB energy investment firm, in an interview with Fortune’s Jordan Blum. “We still have to pay the going world price. It’s a global price.”
DIMON DIVERSIFIES
Jamie Dimon sells $40 million in shares of J.P. Morgan
J.P. Morgan boss Jamie Dimon sold the stock as part of a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan and he still holds 76.3 million shares valued at $23.4 billion, SEC disclosures show. It’s his second sale of 2026 so far, Fortune’s Amanda Gerut tells me. In February, Dimon sold 69,512 shares for $21.4 million. The company previously announced he would be diversifying his holdings in JPM.
MORE FROM FORTUNE
Exclusive: The doctors and education experts who studied AI’s impact on the young call for a 5-year moratorium in schools – Catherina Gioino
Meet the Americans refusing to pay their taxes in protest of the Trump administration – Jacqueline Munis
Teacher, blame thyself: Yale report savages Ivy League schools for destroying American trust in higher education – Nick Lichtenberg
German workers take more than a day off work sick, every single month—so now the government is stepping in and proposing to cut their pay for it – Orianna Rosa Royle
This CEO pirated video games as a teen and became a hacker for the Air Force. Now he’s built a $3 billion cyber firm – Preston Fore
CHART OF THE DAY
The war exacerbated the K-shaped economy
This chart from Bank of America shows the difference in discretionary spending trends among higher-income households and lower-income households, as compared to middle-income folks. ”The gas price shock puts greater strain on discretionary spending by lower-income HHs [households], since they spend a larger share of their income on gas, and save less,” analyst Shruti Mishra says, while “higher-income HHs have seen a bigger increase in tax refunds due to the OBBBA [One Big Beautiful Budget Act].”
NUMBER OF THE DAY
19%
The percentage of small-businesses who say taxes are their biggest problem, per the National Federation of Independent Business survey. Taxation is the most-cited No.1 problem for small firms, the survey says. Chart via Christopher Hodge at Natixis:
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY
The pope versus the president: how Leo became Trump’s fearless foe – FT
TSMC first-quarter profit rises 58%, beats estimates as AI demand fuels record run – CNBC
Scoop: Trump discussed “Jesus” meme with Bill Pulte before posting it, sources say – Axios
Trump’s ‘Triumphal Arch’ Draws Backlash, Even From an Expert Who Proposed It – NYT
NJ Gov demands FIFA foot the bill for 775% hike in World Cup train tickets – NY Post
ONE MORE THING
The diamond market hits rock bottom
The cost of a “basket” of diamonds—that’s how natural diamonds are priced on the open market — “has fallen more than 50% since 2022, and is now at its lowest level on record,” according to Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk.
