As much of the western Florida Peninsula, including the Tampa Bay area, recovers from massive storm surge damage associated with Hurricane Helene, the next hurricane threat for the United States is also focused on Florida. Here’s what we know right now about the next storm.
At the time of writing on Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean (Kirk and Leslie) and a system in the western Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Kirk is a powerful, major hurricane, but it nor Leslie will threaten the U.S. However, the system in the Gulf of Mexico is a different story. NHC’s morning discussion said, “Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized.” The storm has a 70% chance of further development within the next two days, and a 90% chance within the next five days. My experience tells me that we could be looking at a tropical depression or named storm (Milton) later today or Sunday.
We use several models when evaluating these threats, but I will focus on the American GFS and European models, respectively. Both of them are in strong consensus that the storm could move towards the western Florida Peninsula with a potential landfall by the middle of the week. NHC warned, “By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely.”
At this point, I will not anchor to any single model solution outcomes. However, several outcomes show that the storm could intensify into a hurricane and potentially very strong one. Weather expert Michael Ventrice makes this point in the post above, but I caution you that is only one of the potential outcomes shown. His greater point is one that also worries me. When a storm like this gets into the likely climate-charged, abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico, I am always on high alert. If you are in Tampa Bay, Ft. Myers or anywhere along the Florida Peninsula or the Keys, I advise you to pay close attention to this storm. More immediately, the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico is likely to be affected.
There are several things that concern me about this potential storm. Irrespective of name (and it probably will get one), it is going to produce a significant amount of rainfall in Florida. Like Helene, it appears that rainfall could inundate Florida well ahead of the eventual tropical storm or hurricane. This is a recipe for flooding. Much of Florida is already recovering from Helene so this is the last thing they need. Also, both models suggest a landfall in a region spanning Tampa Bay to Fort Myers. There is still uncertainty, but the range of possibilities start to narrow since we are within the five-day window. With current track projections, even places like Orlando, Jacksonville, Savannah, Miami, and the Bahamas should be paying attention.
Not surprisingly, the misinformation machine has been firing on all cylinders after Hurricane Helene. It is not unusual to have hurricanes in September or October. In fact, the peak of the Atlantic season is in September. The 2024 season was always projected to be quite active due to anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, La Nina and other factors. That’s it, that’s the explanation.