This article was published on 5/19 and republished on 5/21.
I think Marvel is going to have to come to terms with that certain portions of the MCU are not returning to their former glory, no matter the quality of the film.
Thunderbolts is great. It’s also hovering near the absolute bottom of the MCU box office, even as it passes a milestone of $300 million globally, now at $325.
That makes it the second lowest-earning MCU film at present, depending if you count The Incredible Hulk, which I think is kind of cheating. But if so, third worst. Here’s the list as it stands:
- The Marvels – $206 million
- Thunderbolts – $325 million
- Captain America: The First Avenger – $370 million
- Black Widow – $379 million
- Eternals – $402 million
- Captain America: Brave New World – $415 million
- Thor – $449 million
- Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania – $476 million
- Ant-Man – $519 million
- Thor: The Dark World – $644 million
At its current trajectory, Thunderbolts may pass Black Widow, which spawned three of its cast members, and the first Captain America as the MCU was just taking off. I’d be surprised if it reached Eternals. The Marvels? Nothing is as bad as The Marvels, which is actually a pretty good movie starring one of the best-cast heroes in the MCU (Imani Velani’s Ms. Marvel) and Brie Larson’s Captain Marvel who previously made $1.1 billion in her solo film. Bizarre.
Do I care how much money Disney makes? I do not. But I fear movies like this failing will prevent them from experimenting more in the future. Thunderbolts is being held up as a new standard of “quality” in the MCU, but I wonder if actual projects like this will continue to exist.
Fortunately for Marvel, they have films coming that seem like inevitable high-earners: Fantastic 4, a new Spider-Man and two Avengers movies. And it just released Deadpool and Wolverine. But the future of the MCU seems somewhat in flux, and you are not going to see any more $1.1 billion Captain Marvel’s or $644 million for the worst Thor movie.
I’d love Thunderbolts’ high quality to be rewarded with higher earnings. But I suppose it’s enough that it exists at all. I just hope we don’t lose more projects like this in the future just because they’re not major characters. I can’t see us getting a Ms. Marvel movie or Kate Bishop movie, and they just may be jammed into a Young Avengers film that won’t be as good. But perhaps I’m a pessimist, and things will be okay after all.
Update (5/21): Obviously only two days have passed and Thunderbolts is not at $328 million, up from that initial $325, but it’s going to slow down a whole lot from here.
However, it’s about to smack into one big problem for its future box office prospects, the fact that Tom Cruise’s Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning will be released this Thursday night, just two days from now. It’s a massive blockbuster and allegedly the final film in the franchise (I’ll believe that when I see it) and with Thunderbolts only getting a third of Final Destination’s haul last weekend, this seems like it’s going to drop fast.
The problem there is that it may not end up passing Captain America and Black Widow after all. Long term maybe it can crawl there, but this is some absolutely dominating competition it now has to deal with.
One bright spot? A recent rumor from an insider says that Yelena is actually going to end up on Sam Wilson’s official Avengers team, as no, it does not seem like two rival Avengers team will be a major plot point in Doomsday, given everything else going on. Besides her, I’d be pretty stunned if Bucky didn’t make the cut as well. Other Thunderbolts have indeed been confirmed for the film, but whether they are official Avengers or not remains to be seen.
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Pick up my sci-fi novels the Herokiller series and The Earthborn Trilogy.
