Just two months ago, the markets seemed to be in crisis as investors despaired over the effects of President Donald Trump’s sweeping set of tariffs. Now, the markets are jubilant.
Late Friday morning New York time, the S&P 500 notched a new all-time high of 6,184 points as the stock index jumped 0.7% over the past three hours. The Nasdaq also hit an all-time high of 20,310 as it rose 0.65% since markets opened. The Dow Jones was up 1.1% and flirting with its own record.
The rally came after Trump said Thursday at a White House event that his administration had just signed a trade deal with China. The 47th president did not initially provide details, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday during an interview on Fox Business Network that he expects China’s supply of rare earth minerals to flow back into the U.S. A Chinese government official later confirmed that the People’s Republic will speed up its export of minerals like dysprosium and terbium, which are used for heat-resistant magnets.
Bessent also said that the U.S. has 18 “important trading partners” with whom the federal government is negotiating. He said he expects those deals to be struck by Labor Day, a longer timeline than the initial July 9 deadline he had previously prescribed.
The stock markets’ euphoric Friday is a welcome change-of-pace for the Trump administration. Shortly after the president’s inauguration on January 20, investors pushed markets to new highs in February as they bet Trump’s pro-business stance would buoy the economy.
However, amid the administration’s chaotic cutbacks in the federal government, spearheaded by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, markets slid. In April, the market selloff became even more dramatic when Trump unveiled a severe array of tariffs on the U.S.’s largest trading partners. Ten days after Trump’s announcement on April 2, which he deemed “Liberation Day,” global equities shed $10 trillion.
The stock market plummet ranked among some of the worst in U.S. history, and the retreat during Trump’s first 100 days in office was the S&P 500’s worst start to a presidential term since Gerald Ford took office in 1974 and the fifth worst since 1928.
The chaos seeped into the bond markets, as interest rates on 20-year U.S. Treasurys rose, a signal of the lack of investor confidence in U.S. government-issued debt. The bond market turmoil reportedly prompted Trump’s administration to retreat from some of its more aggressive trade war rhetoric. And, while the 47th president sometimes reverted back to bombastic threats against China and other major trading partners on social media, his administration worked to strike trade deals and stave off a broader economic slide in the U.S.
By early May, the S&P 500 had regained the losses it sustained after “Liberation Day.” And then, the stock index continued its upward march as inflation and other indicators showed that Trump’s tariff war hadn’t yet seeped through the economy.
In June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report that inflation hadn’t meaningfully crept up post Trump’s tariff reveal. In April, inflation was 2.3%, and, in May, the rate rose only 0.1% to 2.4%.
Update, June 27, 2025: Added in more context surrounding Trump’s trade war and retreat from his most aggressive tariff-related rhetoric.
