Updated August 11 with new sources providing information and details about Foxconn’s production of this year’s iPhones.
The new iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will almost certainly be unveiled in a month’s time. But when, exactly? You can read my detailed predictions of when the iPhone will go on sale, when the keynote revealing it will happen and even when the keynote will be announced here. But a new production line report has emerged which can give greater clarity of what’s happening when and another report adds more credence to it—and now even AI predictions are getting into the act.
So far, many analysts have suggested a keynote date of Tuesday, September 10, the date I believe could be about right (though please read the caveats below). On the topic of AI services, that date seems favorite, too. “Curiously, it’s also the date that some AI services will say if you ask when the next Apple launch is likely to be. But, typically, only some AI tools say that date while others are insistent on September 6th or 12th,” as William Gallagher at Apple Insider points out.
For my money, September 6 is a no-go. It conflicts with the IFA tech show in Berlin. And if a German show sounds too marginal to be a worry, think again: IFA is as big as the mammoth CES trade show in Las Vegas. Which leaves September 10 and September 12 in the frame Or just possibly Monday, September 9. That’s something of a wild card because Apple has never announced an iPhone on a Monday, but it’s not impossible.
Gallagher again: “Human intelligence says that Apple can launch whenever it likes, but in practice there are enormous logistical issues around releasing millions of iPhones. Apple knows how to do it, Apple has done it many times — and so it’s likely to follow the same working pattern again.”
He also, correctly in my view, writes off an earlier date, Tuesday, September 3. It would beat IFA to the punch and steal the trade show’s thunder, but it would be the day after Labor Day which means the press flying in from around the country on the public holiday, not to mention impacting a long weekend for staff, neither of which would be popular.
And that ties into one more point from Apple Insider: there’s much more flexibility right up to the last minute now. “Back when the events were done live, you could rule out such a date [as September 3] because Apple liked to rehearse up to day. With pre-recorded, pre-produced video launches, there shouldn’t be quite the same issue.
Another important indication comes from a claim that Foxconn, crucial to manufacture of the iPhone in China, has recruited extra staff. And quite a lot of them: 50,000 new works have been hired according to Business Korea, as spotted by MacRumors. Extra staff is another very clear indication of production ramping up as the release approaches. And the timing is a good fit for the release date of Friday, September 20—more on the dates below.
Here’s how MacRumors describes the influx of extra staff: “The company has intensified production efforts with its primary manufacturing partner, Foxconn, in Zhengzhou, China. The factory, known as the world’s largest iPhone production base, is now operating at full capacity, having brought in 50,000 additional workers within the last two weeks.”
Meanwhile, mass production of the OLED displays which will adorn the iPhone 16 series phones has been ramped up, according to ET News, with Samsung on track to produce 80 million while LG makes 43 million, it’s claimed.
So, why does this matter? Because it suggests that production of the iPhone is on schedule, that is, no delays are anticipated at this stage. If that’s correct, that means the likelihood of the iPhone 16 series being on sale in September is very strong.
The possible date for the keynote that unveils the hardware—alongside the Apple Watch Series 10 and perhaps new AirPods—seems to be holding steady at Tuesday, September 10.
As ever, Apple likes to be unpredictable, so don’t be surprised if it moves a day earlier or a couple of days later. For sure, it won’t be Wednesday, September 11: Apple has avoided that date since it’s the anniversary of the 2001 attacks.
With all on schedule, it seems, that means the pre-orders for the phones will begin on Friday, September 13 and the iPhone 16 will be on sale on September 20, that is, the following Friday.
Those final dates, for pre-orders and onsale seem set: even if the keynote moves by a day or two.
Apple knows what’s happening, but until it actually announces the keynote, it can change anything it needs to up until the very last minute.
Look out for the keynote to be announced in the first week of September, just when the big electronics trade show is getting going. I’ll report more then, likely Tuesday, September 3 or Wednesday, September 4.
