In what has become a familiar pattern in the Iran war, President Donald Trump again threatened a massive attack then pulled back from the brink.
But while he attributed his latest reversal to U.S. allies pleading with him to give diplomacy another chance, experts also see signs Iran is gaining the upper hand.
That’s as Tehran has used its proxies to expand the war across the region, most notably Houthis rebels threatening ships in the Red Sea that are trying to use the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, Iran has warned its Persian Gulf neighbors they will be targets in the event of a renewed bombardment after demonstrating that its long-range weapons can evade U.S. air defenses.
“Iran and its clients see blood in the water and see a benefit for all of them in escalating and entering the fray,” Afshon Ostovar, an Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School, told the Financial Times.
He added that their goal is to prolong the conflict instead of inflicting more severe damage as Iran looks to exploit less political endurance on the other side.
“So the longer it continues, the weaker the resolve of their enemies will be,” Ostovar explained. “That is how they see it.”
Indeed, Trump’s approval ratings on his handling of the economy have slumped alongside his numbers on the Iran war, with support slipping even among Republicans.
And now that midterm elections are just a few months away and gas prices are back up again, Tehran sees leverage in the U.S. political calendar.
An Iranian diplomat told the Wall Street Journal that the regime is prepared to take advantage of Trump political vulnerability and would consider preemptive strikes if talks fail.
That aggressive stance was on display last week, when Iran launched unprovoked attacks on U.S. bases in what Central Command called an “attempted surprise attack.”
By contrast, Trump’s continued restraint comes despite Iran crossing his red line for resuming all-out war after it killed U.S. troops in Jordan last month.
To be sure, the U.S. still retains significant military assets in the region and continues to enforce a naval blockade on Iran that’s causing more economic pain.
But the U.S. and its allies have also severely depleted stockpiles of interceptors needed to repel Iranian attacks, making critical pieces of their energy infrastructure more at risk.
Global energy markets have also sharply drawn down inventories of crude oil and refined products, with analysts warning that “tank bottoms” will be just around the corner unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.
The combined effect is that the overall playing field has tilted in favor of the Islamic Republic.
“Last night’s events underscore a reality that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: for now, Iran appears to hold the strategic advantage in deterrence,” Dennis Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who specialized in Iran, posted on X. “It has succeeded in creating a form of mutual deterrence that is shaping Washington’s calculations.”
Despite suffering heavy losses at that start of the war, Iran has since shown it can hold the global economy hostage by threatening maritime chokepoints and its Gulf neighbors, he added.
In fact, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke directly with Trump on Saturday to express concern over the plans for massive new U.S. strikes on Iran, sources told Axios.
The kingdom’s de facto ruler reportedly urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the attacks, days after the Saudi defense minister conveyed a similar message.
“President Trump may still decide to order military action. But the fact that Washington continues to hesitate suggests that it recognizes the risks of escalation and is not convinced that a broader campaign would compel Iran to back down,” Citrinowicz wrote.
