With graduation season just weeks away, millions of college seniors are preparing to walk across commencement stages and become the youngest members of the workforce. But for the class of 2026, that transition may be rockier than ever, with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink issuing a warning that the promise of a four-year degree as a pathway to a stable career is beginning to crack.
Fink stressed at BlackRock’s 2026 Infrastructure Summit that he’s “worried that when this year’s college graduates enter the workforce, we could see the highest unemployment rate among them in years—even without a recession.”
At the core of his concern: tech is rapidly reshaping the very entry-level roles that have long served as the first rung for college graduates.
“The speed at which AI is changing, we’re not adapting our society fast enough,” the 73-year-old added. “Really post World War II, the pathway to a white-collar job was a college education, and AI is going to disrupt many of those types of jobs.”
The unemployment rate among recent college graduates ages 22 to 27 currently sits at 5.6%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York—near levels not seen since 2013, excluding the pandemic. And demand for early-career roles continues to tighten. Job postings on Handshake, a platform for college students and recent graduates, fell more than 16% between August 2024 and August 2025, while the average number of applications per role has jumped 26%.
For Gen Z soon entering the workforce, it’s an early sign that the traditional first rung of the career ladder is starting to give way.
AI will create skilled-trade jobs—but the workforce isn’t ready, Larry Fink warns
Despite the warning, Fink pushed back on the idea that college is no longer worth it at all—and he pointed to his own experience.
After graduating from the University of California, Los Angeles in 1974 with a political science degree, Fink said he didn’t feel ready for the workforce. He went on to earn an MBA with a focus in real estate and then launched a career first at investment firm First Boston (later acquired by Credit Suisse) before spending the last four decades building BlackRock into the world’s largest asset manager.
Still, he cautioned that the college-to-career pipeline is no longer universal, arguing that the traditional four-year degree is becoming just one of several viable paths to success.
“The key for life for everyone is to find their purpose,” Fink said. “For some people, their purpose will remain to get a four-year or advanced degree, and they could take that forward—but that’s not going to be the pathway for everybody.”
Where demand is growing—with not enough supply—is in the skilled trades, fueled in part by the expansion of AI infrastructure like data centers.
“[AI] is going to create many jobs and we’re not prepared as a society to fulfill those jobs,” Fink said. “And to me, this is a crisis.”
To help address the gap, BlackRock committed last week to invest $100 million in skilled-trade programs. The initiative aims to work with nonprofit and workforce development partners to reach 50,000 workers over the next five years in roles like electricians, HVAC technicians, plumbers, and ironworkers.
“AI is going to create a lot of skilled jobs needs and the biggest issue confronting our country today and other countries is the speed at which this change is occurring,” he added.
Last year, BlackRock led a group of investors including Microsoft and Nvidia to purchase Aligned Data Centers for $40 billion.
Fortune reached out to BlackRock for further comment.
As Fink warns of a job ‘crisis,’ other CEOs encourage Gen Z to lean into the uncertainty
Fink isn’t alone in his concerns. More than half of employers view the job market for the class of 2026 as “poor” or “fair,” according to a survey from the National Association of Colleges and Employers—the most pessimistic reading since the start of the pandemic.
Still, many CEOs are striking a more optimistic tone, framing the moment not just as disruption, but opportunity.
AMD CEO Lisa Su pointed to the upside for graduates entering the workforce who lean on the technology to find new ways to innovate.
“The Class of 2026 will be graduating at an exciting time, as AI transforms our world and expands what is possible,” she said in a statement announcing her as MIT’s 2026 commencement speaker. “And I look forward to celebrating them as they prepare to share their skills and ideas with the world.”
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan struck a similar tone—acknowledging the anxiety many young people feel, but encouraging them to channel it.
“If you ask them if they’re scared, they say they are. And I understand that,” Moynihan told CBS News earlier this year. “But I say, harness it … It’ll be your world ahead of you.”
