Following the sub-3% mortgage rates during the pandemic that ushered in a wave of new homeownership, hopeful homeowners were slapped by rates that peaked at 8% in October 2023. That halted many new buyers from entering the market—particularly younger generations.
But there may be a small sliver of the market where Gen Zers and millennials could have the opportunity to break in, even though home prices are currently 51% higher than they were the same time in 2020, according to the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Condo prices are actually falling, and dropped 2% year-over-year in May, according to Redfin. That’s the second-largest decline since the real-estate company started tracking the data in 2012.
Condo prices are dropping because homeowners have gotten fed up with high HOA and insurance fees, according to Redfin. The average cost of a condo in the U.S. is $354,100, Redfin data shows.
Jaclyn Bild, a real-estate broker associate at Douglas Elliman Real Estate based in Miami, confirmed the drop in prices has primarily been driven by rising HOA fees, insurance premiums, and overall cost of ownership—not a drop in demand.
“Inventory has increased slightly, and days on market have ticked up, giving buyers more leverage than they’ve had in recent years,” Bild told Fortune. “This window could represent an opportunity for younger buyers who’ve been sidelined by pricing wars or rising interest rates.”
That could be welcome news for Gen Zers and millennials who have had a tough time breaking into the housing market for a host of reasons: comparatively high mortgage rates, rising home prices, and older generations holding onto their homes for longer than they used to.
The pros and cons of buying a condo
Buying a condo can be a good place for first-time homeowners to start because of their typically lower price tag than single-family homes—and less maintenance to boot.
Brett Johnson, a Colorado real-estate agent and owner of New Era Home Buyers, told Fortune condo prices in his housing market have been dropping since June 2024 when the average closing price of a condo was $416,000. As of this June, the average price had dropped 2.6% to $405,000. While not a huge drop, it’s “enough to get buyers’ attention,” Johnson said.
“This could still be a good entry point for Gen Z or millennial buyers who understand the risks and are willing to do their homework,” he added.
The homework is understanding the associated HOA and insurance costs with owning a condo. This is mostly a problem with older or underfunded buildings, he said.
“I’ve helped buyers take advantage of these price dips, but I always tell them to dig deep into the HOA’s financials, look out for special assessments and understand what they’re signing up for,” Johnson said. “Some of these condos are still great deals, but only if you know what you’re getting into.”
Florida has been a prime example of where HOA and insurance fees have caught homeowners by surprise. In recent years, wealthy homeowners have flocked to Florida for its warm weather and smaller tax bills, but were met with unexpected housing fees. An August 2024 Redfin report showed median monthly HOA fee increased 17.2% year over year in Tampa, compared to 5.7% nationally, as an example.
Meanwhile, home insurance prices are expected to jump 8% this year, with some states seeing a 27% jump, according to a study by Insurify.
“Buyers are looking at not just the purchase price, but the total monthly outlay—and if those numbers don’t work, they’re walking away or negotiating more aggressively,” Bild said. “It’s a numbers game, and buildings with transparency, maintenance history, and financial health are coming out ahead.”
