As COP30 approaches in Belém, the world’s ambition gap is widening. UN analysis of national climate plans shows governments falling short of their 1.5°C goals, while impact-investment data reveal a parallel retreat in private capital. Both stories point to the same problem: a collective loss of nerve.
The forthcoming Baku to Belém Roadmap aims to rally trillions for resilience, adaptation and the energy transition. But the real shortfall may be in ambition itself. The NDC Synthesis Report found that current pledges would cut emissions by just 17% from 2019 levels, less than half what’s needed for 1.5°C. Meanwhile the State of Impact 2025 from ImpactCity, Dealroom, and Microsoft reported a 24% fall in impact venture funding to $33 billion, marking a fifth annual decline. The GIIN’s recent 2025 Market Report (a blend of investor survey and market analysis) reported total impact assets growing but concentrating in larger, lower-risk vehicles – signs of a maturing market becoming more cautious about frontier or low-return interventions.
Together, these signals describe a new scarcity economy, defined not only by material shortages but by a quiet contraction of civic and institutional capacity. This scarcity economy has been shaped by energy insecurity, supply-chain protectionism, fiscal retrenchment, and democratic fatigue. The result is a retreat from the very ambition that once scaled impact investing itself.
From Expansion To Caution
Across public pledges, private equity, and institutional capital, the pattern is clear: a retreat from ambition. The original purpose of impact investment was to accelerate interventions that markets underfund, projects where social or environmental value exceeds short-term financial return. Now, even as rhetoric on resilience grows, commitment to it is narrowing.
Impact capital doesn’t operate in a vacuum. Studies show that it performs best where governance mechanisms, institutional capacity and enabling public policy are strong, the civic infrastructure that makes investment possible. Impact capital ultimately depends on stable institutions, trusted data, and cooperative communities that make investment viable. We see this in microfinance, renewable cooperatives, and social enterprises, which all depend on stable local institutions.
The slowdown in impact capital looks less like a market correction than a symptom of a deeper imbalance. Vast resources are mobilised to tackle physical scarcity while civic capacities like trust, governance and cooperation are ignored. Two deficits unfold in parallel, material scarcity, which markets race to solve, and civic scarcity, which they barely see.
From Boom To Plateau
A decade ago, impact investing looked unstoppable. “Impact companies have grown 28-fold in the past decade, and are now worth over $3.6 trillion,” Eglantine Dupuy of Dealroom told me. But 2025 seems to be a turning point. “Rising geopolitical tensions, scarcer resources, and volatile prices have shifted the focus of funding from a long-term transformation agenda to renewed goals of national security, resilience, and independence,” the State of Impact report notes.
The GIIN’s survey confirms the trend: global impact assets under management rose modestly to $1.45 trillion, a 7% increase, far below the 15-20% growth of the late 2010s. New fund launches dropped 18%, and 60% of investors report tighter fundraising conditions. As the GIIN concludes, impact investing has entered “a phase of consolidation after a decade of rapid expansion.”
Concentration And Contraction
Dealroom’s data show North America now accounts for 60% of global impact VC, double Europe’s share. The GIIN reports similar imbalances in institutional funding: North America and Europe hold nearly 80% of total impact AUM, while Africa and Latin America together receive under 10%.
Investor priorities have also shifted: 79% of impact investors now emphasize financial performance over impact outcomes, while only 41% measure community or resilience effects. As the GIIN warns, this raises the risk of impact-washing as mainstream funds rebrand conventional vehicles as transition capital.
The paradox is clear: capital pools in low-risk economies while the regions most in need experience drought, not just of water, but of finance. These geographic and thematic imbalances mirror the deeper divide between financial capital and civic capacity.
Impact’s Unseen Dependencies
Conceived as a bridge between philanthropy and traditional finance, impact investing channelled capital toward projects generating both social value and financial return. In those settings, investments often had civic side effects, strengthening community organizations, microfinance networks, and local accountability.
As capital shifts toward deep-tech, resource security, and industrial resilience, that feedback loop is weakening. Outcomes that can’t be monetized, such as trust and inclusion or institutional strength, are falling out of scope, even though they determine whether investments endure.
With public investment in civic systems, from local institutions to information integrity, retreating, private capital now solves for what it can measure and insure: materials, energy, and infrastructure. Rational from a market perspective, this narrows the field of impact itself. What’s lost is the connective tissue between capital and community: the informal trust and institutional strength that make markets and societies function.
From Impact To Industrial Strategy
Funding now flows toward supply-chain security and hard-tech. “Defense-tech companies are worth almost $700 billion, whereas AI-for-good and peace-tech solutions sit just under $3 billion,” Dupuy noted. The social dimension within venture capital is losing ground as investors focus on technologies with clearer, insurable returns and strategic relevance to national resilience.
That pattern extends across institutional investment. “Sustainable materials have had a really strong funding level since 2021 thanks to AI-powered materials discovery, which has raised over $1 billion in the past year,” Dupuy added. The GIIN reports a similar re-weighting at institutional scale: climate and energy now make up 38% of impact AUM, while social sectors have fallen to 22%.
Impact, once synonymous with inclusion, is being absorbed into industrial strategy. We are learning to engineer resilience in steel and silicon, but not in the systems that hold societies together. In climate policy too, ambition is being reframed — not abandoned, but increasingly defined in terms of growth, competitiveness, and jobs.
The Public Mirror
In a recent statement on the latest NDC Synthesis report, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said we face, “a new era of climate action and ambition.” “Ten years after we adopted the Paris Agreement,” he said, “we can say simply, it is delivering real progress. But it must work much faster and fairer, and that acceleration must start now.”
He cast this acceleration as both environmental and economic saying, “The opportunities in climate action are monumental,” he said, “measured in millions of new jobs and trillions in new investment.” Climate policy, in other words, is being translated into growth and industrial strategy, the public-sector mirror of what’s happening in private markets.
Yet the gap remains daunting. “The broader picture is of a world already paying a huge price from global heating,” Stiell warned, “but also nearing positive economic tipping points toward a safer, healthier, wealthier world powered by clean energy and climate resilience.”
Melanie Robinson, director of global climate, economics and finance at the World Resources Institute, was more blunt saying, “This report lays bare a frightening gap between what governments have promised and what is needed to protect people and planet.”
Governments and investors alike seem to be converging on a narrower definition of success, one that prizes scale, security and competitiveness over inclusion or equity. The result is ambition fatigue: a plateau of effort that still counts as progress but stops short of the systemic change the climate crisis demands.
Signs Of Rebalance
The same forces driving consolidation may yet drive reinvention. The GIIN report said it expects a rebound in impact finance by 2026–27, driven by policy incentives and disclosure mandates. Stiell pointed to “vast movement in the real economy, particularly huge investment flows into clean energy in nearly all major economies,” noting that “renewables surpassed coal as the world’s largest energy source this year.”
Innovation pipelines remain strong. The Dealroom report saw $4.4 billion raised for AI for good, while eight new impact unicorns were minted, nearly all in the U.S. The challenge is that capital stays behind, so Dupuy cautioned, “we see a growing pipeline but tightening liquidity.”
Beyond The Material Lens
Markets are mobilizing around material scarcity while civic scarcity expands in the background, the unpriced deficit of cooperation and institutional capacity. As Stiell put it, “we are still in the race, but to ensure a livable planet for all eight billion people today, we must urgently pick up the pace.”
Whether we look at governments trimming their pledges or investors tightening their portfolios, the ambition gap reflects a scarcity of trust, inclusion, and long-term vision. Success at Belem will be as much about rebuilding trust as it is about reallocating capital. It must mark a turning point on finance, resilience and credibility, if ambition is to regain its full meaning.
If COP30 becomes the moment where ambition turns outward again, linking impact and climate to the systems that sustain them, history may remember it as the summit that reversed the retreat.