Every January, David Protein founder and CEO Peter Rahal knew what to expect: the emergence of a new diet trend like keto or paleo in “very volatile swings.” This year, however, was different. There was no new fad diet.
David Protein’s chief executive is familiar with food trends. Before launching the David brand of protein bars and ice cream in 2024, he created the RXBar, eventually selling it to Kellogg’s for $600 million.
“My general view on food trends is that because of GLP-1s, diet trends are over,” Rahal told Fortune. “It’s really impactful on food trends.”
About 10% of the U.S. population has taken a GLP-1 receptor agonist, a medication that slows digestion and is used to treat diabetes or obesity, as it can regulate the release of insulin and appetite.
The drug is expected to swell to a $82 billion market this year, according to Morgan Stanley, and as it changes the nature of weight loss, the food industry is expected to change along with it.
While food brands like Nestle and Conagra roll out special products specifically for GLP-1 users to capture this emerging market, Rahal sees a fundamental difference in how people view trends around food, particularly diet programs designed for people to lose weight.
“No one’s turning to a diet as an intervention for weight loss or body composition change. Everyone’s going to GLP-1s,” he said.
Last year, WeightWatchers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as GLP-1 drugs zapped demand for traditional weight loss programs. Soon after, it announced partnerships with the makers of GLP-1s like Wegovy and Mounjaro, while also expanding its platform to offer dietitians and behavioral coaches for those using the drug.
But where GLP-1s may be eliminating the need for certain trends, it’s also forming new ones.
“That’s why protein is popular, is because it’s all fundamentally GLP-1-driven,” he said. “So then what’s next is really hard to predict.”
The rise of ‘proteinmaxxing’
Indeed, David Protein is among myriad food brands capitalizing on the rising trend of “proteinmaxxing” that Rahal attributed to the GLP-1 boom. The intake of protein helps GLP-1 users preserve muscle, as the medication can suppress appetite and require users to consume nutrient-dense food to avoid muscle loss.
Rahal called the emergence of protein-packed snacks now lining shelves “protein capitalism.” New products range from Khloud, Khloé Kardashian’s protein popcorn, to Starbucks’ new line of beverages, including some topped with whey protein cold foams.
The rise in protein popularity is so immense it already has meaningful impacts on food supply chains, including a shortage of whey protein, a popular isolate due to its good taste and stability in packaged foods.
“Folks that are supplementing with GLP-1s for weight loss and for other health maintenance, they need that additional protein to maintain muscle mass and feel good about themselves,” Kathleen Wolfley, vice president of agriculture consultancy Ever.Ag Insights told Fortune. “So I think that there’s an element of very, very firm demand in the market.”
According to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, the price of high-protein whey concentrate has soared 40% over the past few months, with some suppliers already selling out of the product. Rahal said that since David Protein released its first products in late 2024, the cost of the whey protein it uses has increased from $7 per pound to nearly $12 per pound.
Rahal said the shortage could continue to change the market around protein products, forcing some companies to change recipes by pivoting to other sources of proteins, potentially causing a “demand destruction” of whey. However, increased demand for other protein sources risks raising prices for other ingredients.
David Protein, for its part, plans to ride the proteinmaxxing wave. It’s been able to absorb the increased cost of whey and bank on the rising popularity of its products, which are in about 16,000 stores and expected to rake in $300 million in revenue this year.
“The strategy is just, like, survive versus changing anything,” Rahal said.
