Hurricane season is off to quiet start in the Atlantic basin with the exception of misguided posts about long-range, model-generated “fantasy” storms by overly eager “social mediarologists. The Eastern Pacific basin, however, is in full swing. Tropical Storm Erick, the fifth named storm, is approaching Central America and Mexico. Here’s the latest on the storm and why it is expected to become a hurricane before making landfall.
What We Know Right Now
According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm is still a tropical storm at the time of writing early Wednesday morning, but it is likely to intensify to hurricane strength by the time you read this. The storm is slowly moving towards the northwest at roughly 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph as of 3 am CST. On its current projected track, Erick would likely make landfall in southern Mexico on Thursday. Hurricane warnings are already active for parts of coastal Oaxaca and Guerrero.
Here’s why we expect the storm to strengthen in the coming hours. NHC’s morning discussion noted, “The environment ahead of Erick remains highly conducive for additional strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture.” These are optimal ingredients for intensification. Some models indicate that rapid intensification is possible, which means an increase in wind speeds of at least 35 mph in less than 24 hours.
What Hazards To Expect
The forecast ultimately puts Erick at Category 2 level, but I would not rule out slightly higher intensity. Either way, the hazards will be the same. NHC is warning of heavy rainfall, flooding and mudslides in portions of Central America and southwestern Mexico in the coming days. Some regions with elevated terrain will be particularly vulnerable to these hazards. Coastal regions, particularly on the right side of the eye, should also be prepared for storm surge, coastal flooding, and strong winds.
