The slowdown in European electric vehicle sales will soon be seen as a temporary blip as they accelerate again towards market leadership by 2030 and on to complete dominance by 2030.
That’s the view of professional services company Accenture, in a report on how European automakers can survive the EV revolution. To stay ahead of Chinese and U.S. competition, Europeans must capitalize on their long-standing brand power, the report said.
In a market where Chinese EV imports are said to have at least a 30% price advantage, heritage power may not be enough. And overall EV sales targets for 2030 based on EU rules cutting CO2 emissions now look impossible to achieve.
Meanwhile, a rash of new EVs from next year will help establish the crucial mass-market.
‘There is a temporary slowdown in EV sales in Europe but over time this adoption curve will pick up and accelerate once again,” Juergen Reers, Global Automotive and Mobility Lead for Accenture said in an interview.
And EVs will have to demonstrate some of their renowned on-the-road-acceleration if sales are to reach levels demanded by the European Union’s CO2-based rules requiring new car sales by 2035 are all EVs.
The EU rules imply around an 80% level of EV sales by 2030. (The U.K. brought forward 100% to 2030). Most sales forecasts do predict a big pickup from the current drought, but unless things change drastically the 2030 target is in jeopardy.
Schmidt Automotive Research reckons in 2024 West European EV sales will hit 1.9 million for a market share of 16.6%. In 2025 there will be a big jump to 2.7 million (22.2%) as EU CO2 rules tighten. Sales will advance by about 5 million between then and 2030 to 57% of the market, according to Schmidt.
In April, investment bank UBS said Europeans will buy almost nine million fewer electric vehicles between 2024 and 2030 than expected, as high prices, insufficient range, and clunky recharging put off prospective buyers. UBS cut its forecast for European EV sales to 8.3 million in 2030 compared with its previous estimate of 9.6 million.
In June, investment researcher Jefferies cut its Europe forecast to 6.8 million in 2030 from the 8.9 million published late last year. Last month it left that forecast intact but trimmed 400,000 EVs off its 3.2 million estimate for 2025 for a market share of 21%, not 24%. Its latest forecast, published Friday, slashed more than two million sales from its 2030 forecast. The 2030 forecast now stands at 4.7 million for a market share of 35%, down from the previous 50%. This is bound to renew the corporate clamour to radically change the EU’s CO2 regime.
The sales forecasts suggest the 2030 targets are impossible. Recent slow sales have been down mainly to high prices. Is there a place in the market for a game-charging cut price €10,000 ($10,400) practical EV with 100-mile range, 60 mph speed, 2+2 children to turbocharge sales?
“The number of EV models being launched priced at between €20,000 ($20,800) and €30,000 ($31,250) will uplift sales starting in 2025. I doubt if there will be any €10,000 models in the foreseeable future. Below €20,000 yes, but €10,000 remains a stretch in Europe,’ Reers said in the interview.
The BYD Seagull and Wuling Bingo sell in huge numbers in China for around €10,000. But the high cost of making them meet EU safety standards makes it unlikely they would appear in Europe, according to Reers.
German manufacturers have said the EU CO2 rules will be very difficult to meet and have suggested some mitigation. Reers said he could see the case for some adjustments, but the overall shape should remain intact.
“For an industry with long-term investment cycles, having clarity on long-term goals is very important, but some adjustments on the CO2 reduction path towards the 2035 goal in line with the slower EV adoption make sense,” Reers said.
As it becomes clearer that the EU CO2 targets will be increasingly difficult to make, the clamor from critics for them to be lifted is increasing. This view says politicians aren’t qualified to decide technology winners and the market should decide between hybrids, plug-in hybrids, more efficient internal combustion engines with so-called e-fuel, hydrogen fuel cells and of course pure electric.
“I have some sympathy for that but from my point of view the future will be electric because that is the most effective and efficient way of getting to net carbon zero mobility,” Reers said.
In the report, Accenture said traditional automakers in Europe face mounting pressure as EVs upend the status quo. The China threat has been dented by EU tariffs, but the effectiveness of the curb remains to be seen. To fight off the threat. Europe’s manufacturers must leverage their impressive brand power, among other things.
“To stay ahead, European (manufacturers) must capitalize on their heritage brands, get their EV manufacturing basics right by refining supply chains, battery platforms and vehicle manufacturing, and adopt customer-centric, software-first approach to future mobility,” the report said.
This brand strength needs to be used to fight for market share in global markets.
“These heritage brands are known for their engineering, manufacturing excellence, design and long-term quality – features that resonate with customers and are difficult for newcomers to replicate. For instance, consider how BMW has recently overtaken Tesla in Europe, highlighting that traditional brands can outperform even the most disruptive newcomers,” according to the report.
It remains to be seen how effective blandishments about history and quality will be during hard times and against a 30% Chinese price advantage.
