The Lede
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is likely to become a hurricane this weekend. If it does, it will be the second hurricane in the Atlantic basin this year and the seventh named storm. Here’s what you need to know about the storm, and who is likely to be affected.
What’s ahead?
According to the latest information from the National Hurricane Center as of 5:00 pm AST Friday, Tropical Storm Gabrielle contained sustained winds of 50 mph and was moving at 12 mph. Located well north and east of the Caribbean Islands, the storm is predicted to become a hurricane late Saturday or early Sunday. While no impacts are expected for the United States, the island of Bermuda could experience significant winds as the center of the storm passes to the east.
NHC indicated that Gabrielle is entering an environment with less wind shear, which could support strengthening. According to NOAA forecasters in their Friday evening discussion, “The reliable track models still show Gabrielle’s center passing at least 130 n mi east of Bermuda in 60-72 h.” They caution, however, that the island should remain on guard as the average track forecast error at 72 hours is roughly 90 nautical miles.
It is also important to remember that hurricane hazards are not points or lines on a map. Wind, rainfall, swells, and rip current hazards usually extend well beyond the center of a storm. NHC went on to say there is 20 to 25 percent chance that Bermuda will experience winds exceeding tropical storm thresholds.
Retire The “Fish Storm” Narrative
I want to make one final point. It is common to hear people refer to storms like Gabrielle as “fish storms.” The assumption is there are no impacts because the storm will not make landfall. That terminology has always bothered me. If you visit maritime activity websites, it is clear many shipping lanes and fisheries are in the path of such storms. Both of which are vital to global commerce and food supply.
Sure, I understand that impacts are relative. A storm like this will have far greater impact if it makes landfall in a populated area. However, the impact is not zero as many assume because storms like Gabrielle impact maritime operations, cruise ships and the supply chain. Let’s retire the “fish storm” narrative and be more prescriptive about impacts for land and the maritime environments.
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