Google has just given millions of Microsoft users a reason to switch platforms—at least according to a surprise disclosure from a very surprising source.
Another twist this weekend in the ongoing “Browser War” between Google and Microsoft. Earlier this month, I reported on the complaints leveled at Microsoft, that it was reportedly “unfairly” promoting Edge over Chrome to Windows users.
The complaint came in an independent report sponsored by Mozilla, which also suggested Microsoft was at times overriding user settings and defaulting to Bing over Google search. It is clear that Microsoft wants to create a search rival to Google. But now that claim has taken a huge twist, with Apple weighing in. And it looks like bad news for the millions of users who have trusted Bing search over recent years.
Court documents prepared by Google for its antitrust case with the US Department of Justice, have just been unsealed. The claim is that Google’s $20+ billion a year in exclusive search agreements with iOS and Android facilitate an alleged monopoly in online search. Not so, says Google in response, turning to Apple to explain why.
According to Google, Microsoft tried to sell Bing to Apple back in 2018, and then tried for a JV instead. As reported by CNBC, Google says that “Microsoft pitched Apple in 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2020 about making Bing the default in its Safari web browser, but each time, Apple said no, citing quality issues with Bing.”
Google’s now unsealed (albeit redacted) court filing cites quotes it attributes to Eddie Cue, Apple’s SVP for Services, including that “Microsoft search quality, their investment in search, everything was not significant at all. And so everything was lower. So the search quality itself wasn’t as good. They weren’t investing at any level comparable to Google or to what Microsoft could invest in. And their advertising organization and how they monetize was not very good either.”
Bad news then, for the millions of users trusting Bing’s search all through that period and since—at least if you believe Apple’s assessment of its relative quality. I have approached Microsoft for any comment on the substance of Google’s filing.
In a world where Google has more than 90% of the global search engine market and Bing less than 4%, there are strong echoes of the Edge Vs Chrome debate itself. Google is a search business, it drives its revenues and the entire ecosystem, that spiders it way across the world wide web. This is its bread and butter.
So far so straightforward. But timing is everything. And this news comes at the most interesting time for search in years. Not only are we witnessing the slow death of the tracking cookies that have underpinned commercial search, but we are also seeing early signs of the tidal wave of AI disruption that will reshape the search industry.
And so, as Bing users digest this news and whether they have made the right choice, the more pertinent question is what happens next. Because by the time assessments on traditional search are made, we will have moved on. And the real lesson here is one of network effect and structural market dominance, whether achieved fairly through competitive innovation or unfairly through monopoly.
Which brings us to OpenAI’s ChatGPT (key shareholder—Microsoft) versus Google’s Gemini (née Bard). Currently, these two generative AI platforms are in the box seat for first mover advantage in AI-based search. This will step beyond browsers and task bars and will burrow into our messaging, mapping, email and productivity apps.
The idea that we can chat to a seemingly human assistant to find the ideal holiday/gift/car/TV is very appealing, if for no other reason than the current novelty factor. And we have already seen multiple warnings as to the privacy implications of all this user data being sent in the direction of the AI models and their trainers.
None of those generative AI search models exist today, at least not in any form to threaten more traditional search. And the advertising ecosystem that underpins this continues to grapple with the end of tracking cookies. AI is several steps beyond that.
So, takeaway number one is for the millions of Microsoft users that comprise that 3.42% search market share, and whether Bing has bridged the gap—as perceived by Apple at least, or is Google dominant for reasons of quality above all else.
Takeaway number two, is to consider what structure the search industry of tomorrow will likely adopt and should adopt—not necessarily the same things at all. How should the lessons of the last decade or two be taken into account. All of which becomes ever more critical because Gen-AI search will likely not present the same optionality we see today. The risk that users are driven in certain commercial directions is huge.
“To empower people to unlock the joy of discovery, feel the wonder of creation and better harness the world’s knowledge, ” Microsoft blogged last year, “we’re improving how the world benefits from the web by reinventing the tools billions of people use every day, the search engine and the browser.”
Microsoft thinks half of the 10 billion search queries a day are unanswered, because “people are using search to do things it wasn’t originally designed to do. It’s great for finding a website, but for more complex questions or tasks too often it falls short.”
“AI will fundamentally change every software category, starting with the largest category of all–search,” Microsoft’s Satya Nadella said at the time, as “Bing and Edge powered by AI copilot” launched. Maybe. But not much has changed to search since. He’s right, just not quite yet. Turns out we’re not ready and neither is the tech.
I asked ChatGPT for a view from deep inside the AI rabbit hole. “It’s challenging to predict an exact timeframe for when AI might fully replace traditional search engines like Bing and Google,” I was told. “AI-driven search technologies are continuously evolving and improving, [but] completely replacing traditional search engines involves not just technological advancements but also widespread acceptance.”
And so here we are. The next 12-18 months will tell us more as to how fast the core driver of the web—search—can change without disrupting its purpose. And we will see how the Android versus iOS battle more broadly over AI influences how search is conducted on various devices.
“It’s possible that in the future,” came the echoey voice from inside that rabbit hole, “that AI-powered search systems may become the primary method of information retrieval, but this transition could take years or even decades.”
We live, as they say, in interesting times.
