- The future of labor is providing maintenance for automated factory technology, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC. He posited that the growth of manufacturing in the U.S. as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariffs would spur more jobs in the form of factory work. Labor experts are dubious about the growth and sustainability of these jobs.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sees one positive byproduct of President Donald Trump’s tariff plan: a “manufacturing renaissance” in the U.S. that would lead to the next three generations of Americans holding factory jobs.
Trump proposed steep tariffs during his first days back in office, cracking down on imports from China, Vietnam, and other manufacturing capitals, in an attempt to develop production centers and supply chains to the U.S. Lutnick suggested an increase in factory work—bolstered by automated robotic labor—would provide an opportunity for American workers to find stable and well-paying jobs, beginning at $70,000 to $80,000 per year.
“It’s time to train people not to do the jobs of the past, but to do the great jobs of the future,” Lutnick told CNBC’s “The Exchange” earlier this week. “This is the new model, where you work in these kind of plants for the rest of your life, and your kids work here, and your grandkids work here.”
Robots are already starting to hit production lines. U.S. automakers installed nearly 10% more robots in factories this year than the year before, according to the trade group International Federation of Robotics. Hyundai Motor Group, for example, acquired robotics company Boston Dynamics for $1.1 billion in 2021.
The increase in automation would provide opportunities for tradespeople—specifically people in community college or those who decide not to pursue higher education—to become highly trained, according to Lutnick.
“You should see an auto plant,” he said. “It’s highly automated, but the people—the [4,000] or 5,000 people that work there—they are trained to take care of those robotic arms. They’re trained to keep the air conditioning [going].”
A Department of Commerce spokesperson told Fortune the agency was committed to reversing the trend of the manufacturing jobs leaving the U.S.. Since 1979, the country has lost 6.5 million manufacturing jobs due to outsourcing and previous policies, the person said.
“Secretary Lutnick is committed to revitalizing critical manufacturing in the United States,” the spokesperson said in a statement.
More robots, fewer jobs
But labor experts aren’t convinced the key to more—and better—U.S. jobs lies in factory automation. The increased use of industrial robots may actually have a negative impact on the workforce, according to a 2020 study from Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Daron Acemoglu. Along with Boston University professor Pascual Restrepo, he calculated that adding one robot for every 1,000 U.S. workers would cause wages to decline by 0.42%, and the employment-to-population ratio to decrease by 0.2%. These small percentages add up, costing the U.S. about 400,000 jobs so far, according to the study.
While robots do increase factory efficiency, it comes at the expense—not the addition—of factory jobs, the study showed.
“Our evidence shows that robots increase productivity,” Acemoglu said in an interview with the MIT Sloan School of Management. “They are very important for continued growth and for firms, but at the same time they destroy jobs and they reduce labor demand. Those effects of robots also need to be taken into account.”
The role of unionizing
Eric Blanc, a labor historian and Rutgers University labor studies professor, argues that beyond the theoretical idea of creating more factory jobs, there needs to be consideration of the quality and sustainability of those jobs.
“The reason people associate factory jobs with good jobs and have this nostalgic view of the heyday of American manufacturing in the 1950s, when you could have one breadwinner providing for the whole family—that was the product of unionization,” Blanc recently told Fortune.
While a wave of unionization efforts in the 1930s and ‘40s created regulations and standards for factory jobs to be favored among American workers, the Trump administration is decidedly anti-union, Blanc said. In late March, Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to cease collective bargaining with federal unions, an action a federal judge has since blocked.
Without factory unions, workers would be subject to 12-hour days, lower wages, and the possibility of injury. A 2016 UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education study found one-third of U.S. manufacturing workers relied on a government assistance program such as food stamps, and pay for manufacturing jobs lag behind non-manufacturing jobs.
“Just promising more factory jobs is not going to bring back prosperity,” Blanc said.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
