Hurricane Erin is not expected to make landfall in the United States, but a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of the North Carolina coast. The National Hurricane Center has also issued a storm surge watch for that region. Here’s the latest information on the powerful major hurricane and why the NHC likely issued the watch even as the storm center will stay out at sea.
As of the 5 p.m. Monday advisory from NHC, Hurricane Erin is a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 14o mph. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at 10 mph and is expected to make a turn off to the northeast by midweek. Erin grew in size because of a recent eyewall replacement cycle. When an ERC happens, the storm may temporarily weaken (good news) but grown in size (bad news). That’s exactly what happened with Erin as it transitioned from a Category 5 storm on Saturday morning to a Category 3 storm later in the weekend. Because of very warm waters in the path of Erin, it has now regained some strength and has a larger footprint.
NHC wrote in its Monday evening discussion, “It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring.” The uncertainty in the wind speed probability is because the size of Erin’s wind field has much larger average.
For this reason, it is likely that tropical storm conditions associated with the outer bands could be present along portions of the North Carolina coast as the storm passes well offshore. A tropical storm watch is now in effect from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound. NHC also issued a storm surge watch from Cape Lookout to Duck.
A tropical storm watch means that winds of 39 mph or greater are possible within the next 48 hours. According to NHC, a storm surge watch means a “possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.” According to NHC, the Outer Banks could experience these conditions by late Wednesday.
Forecasters are also watching another storm that could develop in the Atlantic. NHC gives it a 60% chance of development within the next seven days. Watch this space for future updates.
