Can’t live without your morning cup (or cups) of coffee? Better taper down that caffeine addiction: it’s costing you a lot more to get your daily cup of joe.
Inflation surged nearly a full percent in a month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most of that spike comes from costs associated with the war in Iran, such as gas: energy prices alone climbed 10.9% for the month. Gasoline led all categories by a wide margin, surging 21.2%, the steepest monthly jump since 1967.
On a yearly basis, inflation hit 3.3% in March, up nearly a full percentage point from 2.4% in February. That’s highest annual rate since April 2024, and the biggest one-month increase since 2022.
Economists were comforted by the fact that the energy spike didn’t roll over more into other categories. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose only 0.2% month over month, with a rise of 2.6% year over year, slightly below expectations. “The trajectory is encouraging here and should not be overlooked,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL financial, wrote in a note.
Still, the energy spike has started to bleed through. Coffee, already an inflation sore spot, jumped again in March: the average retail price of ground roast coffee spiked 30.5% year over year to $9.46 per pound, driven by a 40% tariff on Brazilian imports and freight costs skyrocketing as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely inaccessible to shipping.
Nonalcoholic beverages broadly, which is a CPI category that captures coffee, tea, and juice, were up 5.6% year over year. Airfare, apparel, household furnishings, and new vehicles all climbed as well, while tobacco (8%) and hospital services (7.1%) were already running hot.
However, overall, prices for food were more or less flat, while prices for medical care, personal care, and used cars actually fell during the month.
But several economists cautioned against getting too bullish. As John Kerschner, global head of securitized products and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, wrote in a note, “given the increase in diesel prices, it is only a matter of time before they bleed through to effect downstream components like food.”
Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, wrote that core inflation’s “effect on real wage growth will bear the full brunt in April.”
“While I’m glad to see the effects to be less than expected in March, the effects in April are now more likely to be worse,” he added.
