iPhone 18 Pro Price Warning As Apple Downgraded To Hold

Update, Sunday, August 2. This article has been updated with details on Apple’s projected price rises and hardware leasing program.

GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu has downgraded Apple to “Hold” following the company’s quarterly guidance. Citing rising costs for TSMC’s silicon wafers and inflationary pressures on NAND and DRAM memory, Pu expects the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max to cost $200 to $300 more when the new smartphones launch in September.

Premium Smartphone Prices: Component Costs Driving iPhone 18 Pro Price Hikes

Rising memory chip costs and demand for AI server infrastructure are driving widespread price increases across the global smartphone market.

The twin forces of trade restrictions in the Gulf and the rapacious demands for AI server infrastructure have driven up the prices of memory and storage. While some costs can be absorbed by reducing margins, manufactuers have been working to amortise higher costs through higher retail pricing, increasing base specs to support higher pricing, and increasing the importance of subscription services to boost lifetime revenue per user.

Samsung’s recent launch of the Galaxy Z Fold8 and Z Fold8 Ultra has seen year-on-year pricing rise by $100 for the 256GB and 512GB models, and $200 for the 1TB models. Xiaomi has announced price rises across its wider portfolio. Oppo, OnePlus and Vivo announced price rises for Q2 2026,

Qualcomm CEO Christiano Amon discussed the impact this is having on consumer confidence as they look for value for money.“Consumer preference within the premium category is changing towards a preference to the lower end of the premium, as well to last year’s phone, because of the memory price increases.”

iPhone 18 Pro Margins: Memory Inflation Squeezes Hardware

Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook confirmed that exponential increases in memory prices are impacting hardware gross margins across the Mac, iPad, and upcoming iPhone lines.

The Mac and iPad portfolios have both seen mid-cycle price increases due to economic conditions unlikely to calm over the next year. Apple hedges across the supply chain, but these price rises illustrate systemic long-term pressure rather than short-term variations. Speaking during this week’s Q3 earnings call, outgoing CEO Tim Cook said that Apple is in ” what I would characterize as a 100-year flood on memory pricing with exponential increases in memory prices.”

Cook also noted that silicon costs will be higher in the September quarter, only partially offset by lower component costs and Apple’s inventory stockpile. Although he would not be drawn on future product pricing, the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max are set for release in September and will be affected by the harsh trading conditions.

iPhone 18 Pro Pricing Speculation

Update, Sunday, August 2.

Writing for Bloomberg’s Power On newsletter, Mark Gurman takes a closer look at the upcoming price rises and one approach Apple is taking to sidestep the initial sticker shock. Alongside the impact of storage and memory on the bill of materials, the components for the new camera systems of the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max are contributing to the higher build cost.

The question is not if iPhone rises are coming, but how much they will be. Given the recent price rises for the iPad and Mac, Gurman expects a similar $100 to $200 bump for the smartphone. Given broadly similar specs on memory and storage,

“I am expecting the same range for the iPhone. As for the foldable iPhone, you should prepare for a starting price of at least $2,000, if not more. Keep in mind that Samsung’s new foldable is $1,900 and Apple’s device will be pitched as more of a premium product. It’s a good thing Apple got the Upgrade leasing program out in time to soften the blow.”

Apple launched Apple Upgrade, a leasing program for consumers looking to buy new hardware, earlier this week. Expect Apple to lean more towards $35 per month for two years rather than $1299 to buy the iPhone 18 Pro outright.

Analyst Downgrades Apple On iPhone 18 Pro Price Risk

GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu downgraded Apple stock from buy to hold after the company’s revenue guidance signalled substantial price increases for the iPhone 18 Pro series.

On the strength of the changing market, smartphone analyst Jeff Pu has downgraded Apple to “hold”. Although the last quarter’s numbers were up year on year and exceeded expectations, guidance for the next quarter’s growth was lower than expected. The iPhone remains Apple’s primary growth driver, yet Pu sees two significant challenges.

The first is the increased cost of memory and storage: “Higher 2nm silicon and DRAM/NAND costs could drive a $250–300 price hike for iPhone 18 Pro [and iPhone 18 Pro Max].” The second is the iterative upgrade to the rest of the hardware, limiting the upgrade potential from the iPhone 16 Pro and 17 Pro handsets. The foldable iPhone Ultra could contribute up to seven million sales, but Pu is cautious about the iPhone 18 Pro demand,

Balancing iPhone 18 Pro Margins With AI Rollouts

The iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max will sell in significant numbers and continue to contribute to Apple’s revenue. They will also help introduce the next generation of Apple Intelligence and Siri AI to Apple’s community. But the phones will face a stiffer challenge than previous Pro smartphones, thanks to the market conditions forcing a price rise, weaker-than-expected upgrades, and consumer reluctance.