Is a Covid-19 outbreak happening at the 2024 Summer Olympics? Well, it’s complicated—complicated by the Covid-19 surveillance approach that the Paris Olympics has been taking. Or rather has not been taking. So far, at least 40 Olympic athletes have tested positive for the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, this number could very well be just the tip of the iceberg at the Summer Games, if you can imagine an iceberg during the 90-plus degree Fahrenheit weather that Paris is facing today.
Without the Paris Olympics enforcing any clear universal Covid-19 testing and test reporting protocols across all athletes and countries, it’s unclear how many others may have tested positive for Covid-19 without posting the result on Instagram or having their national Olympic committees report it. It’s also unclear how many have been infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) but never ended up getting tested.
That’s basically what happens when you essentially rely on self-report to know what’s going on with Covid-19. Some people and countries may be more active about testing themselves and open about sharing test results. For example, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) has indicated that 16 of their athletes so far have tested positive for Covid-19. Australian swimmer Zac Stubblety-Cook posted on Instagram that he’s been “dealing with COVID” not too long after his silver medal performance in the men’s 200 meter breaststroke event and the AOC confirmed he had completed a five-day course of antivirals for Covid. The AOC also confirmed that another of their swimmers, Lani Pallister, received antivirals as well. Pallister had withdrawn from the women’s 1,500 meter freestyle event and then later competed for Australia’s 4×200 meter freestyle relay team.
By contrast, you haven’t heard a Covid-19 peep from many of the other 200-plus national Olympic committees represented at this year’s Games. Does that mean that their peeps have been Covid-free? No, not necessarily. In fact, it’s highly unlikely that the Australia Olympic team has constituted nearly half of all the Covid-19 cases among athletes in Paris. There’s nothing about their green and yellow uniforms that should make them more susceptible than others to the virus. And athletes certainly have been mixing across countries in different ways.
There are also seems to be rather divergent ways that athletes and countries have been dealing with Covid-19. On the one hand, German decathlete Manuel Eitel let everyone know on July 30 on Instagram that he withdrew from the Olympic Games due to Covid-19.
On the other hand, there have been reports of athletes still participating in events even while feeling sick. For example, British swimmer Adam Peaty began feeling unwell prior to 100 meter breaststroke final. After competing in the event and earning a silver medal, he tested positive for Covid-19 on July 29.
And as I reported for Forbes, U.S. sprinter Noah Lyles tested positive for Covid-19 two days before the 200 meter final, isolated himself and received Paxlovid before racing to a bronze medal in the event.
Again, Peaty and Lyles are likely just the tip of the iceberg since they chose to go public about their Covid-19. Who knows how many other athletes have been quietly struggling with Covid symptoms.
It’s not surprising that different athletes and countries may be handling feeling sick and testing positive for Covid differently. That’s what happens when there are no real universal Covid-19 guidelines enforced at the Paris Olympics. Naturally, athletes have been training for these Olympics for years. In many cases, it’s been their sole focus. So, it is natural for them to do whatever they can to compete in their events. It is also natural for them to be quiet about their physical condition before an event. After all, you don’t see too many athletes walk up to the starting line of a race and yell, “Everyone I am feeling like poop today. So, here’s your big chance to beat me.”
It was much easier to tell whether there was a Covid-19 outbreak at the last Olympics held in Tokyo in 2021. Back then, the Olympics enforced regular testing of athletes as well as precautions such as requiring face mask use and athletes to stay isolated when testing positive for Covid-19.
Of course, things with Covid-19 are different now than they were in 2021. Covid-19 hospitalization and death rates were significant higher. Everyone’s immune systems were much more “virginal” to the SARS-CoV-2 and its spike proteins. When you’ve already been around the block with the spike protein several times via getting vaccinated or infected, your immune system is a lot more likely to generate a more ordered and effective response against the virus. It’s not going to behave like that person on a date for the first time, trying all sorts of stuff and misfiring half the time. This accumulated experience with the spike protein is a big reason why your chances of getting severe problems from getting infected are probably significantly less now than they were in 2021.
So, it’s reasonable not to expect the same level of concerns and precautions at this year’s Olympics. At the same time, Covid-19 has not gone away. Since the SARS-CoV-2 is not being followed and studied as intensely as it was during the first two years of the pandemic, it’s not completely clear what the risk of hospitalization and death may be if you get infected with the SARS-CoV-2. Regardless, at this point, you still can’t treat the SARS-CoV-2 the same as the flu and other respiratory viruses. While there isn’t much worry about “long flu,” getting Covid-19 still brings the risk of long Covid, where you continue to have symptoms like fatigue, brain fog and a host of other possible symptoms long after your initial infection.
The bottom line is that we can’t tell whether a Covid-19 outbreak has been happening at the 2024 Summer Olympics and if so how large it may be. All speculation is based on super-faulty data and the lack of data in general. This is kind of what’s happening in many parts of the world such as the U.S. on a day-to-day and week-to-week basis. Without enough and reliable data, it’s really difficult to tell when a Covid-19 outbreak is happening. You usually find out after the fact, after there are reports of more emergency room visits and hospitalizations. It’s sort of like watching the Olympics during prime time in the U.S. You only hear of things after they have occurred, and there’s not much more you can do about it.