Extreme weather is one of the top risk factors for supply chain disruption, and this hurricane season looks to be an active one for businesses and municipalities alike to watch. With the development of La Niña in the Pacific and warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, meteorologists are seeing the potential for above-average hurricane activity for the U.S. One tool that will help keep supply chains more weather resilient than previous seasons is tropical storm forecasting driven by artificial intelligence in weather modeling.
Expanded Hurricane Risks
Unlike last year, when the El Niño weather pattern kept most of the tropical storms in open waters, there is concern that we’ll likely see more storms making landfall. Studies show that hurricanes, and even strong tropical storms, are increasingly having devastating impacts farther inland and outside of the storm’s path by producing more rain, moving slower, and lasting longer over land. One study predicts that the growing reach of storms could lash inland areas with winds that are as much as five times higher than historic storms and an increase in rainfall by 45%. Another study shows that 50 years ago, a typical tropical system would have lost more than three-quarters of its intensity in the first 24 hours of landfall. Now, it would only lose half; driving weather impacts farther.
Hurricane Idalia is a recent example of broader impacts. The storm surge to Florida’s Gulf Coast was up to 12 feet above dry land along more than 30 miles of coast to the north and south of the storm’s center and inundated structures up to 25 miles inland.
Supply Chain Impact
The impact on the supply chain extends beyond the hurricane’s path and creates a domino effect across the country. Transportation is a major consideration during these storms, as downed power lines, damaged bridges, flooded roads, and shipping port closures can all impact the supply chain and create issues well beyond the area hit by the storm. Ports, airlines, and rail cargo may all experience long delays followed by bottlenecks as they work to get shipments moving during a storm and again after the storm passes. Any products or materials that must travel through storm-stricken areas have the potential to get delayed and cause shortages across the country. Any disrupted oil and gas operations offshore and inland refineries can lead to increased gas prices for consumers at the pump.
While it’s impossible to prevent hurricanes, some actions can reduce the potential disruption to supply chains. Improved tropical storm forecasting and earlier warning times, made possible through advanced technologies and modeling can help businesses along the supply chain better plan ahead of tropical storms. such as reroute transportation, divert deliveries, or use alternative resources.
New Technologies Help Manage Supply Chain Risks
Both the National Hurricane Center and enterprise weather companies have deployed new technologies that improve storm tracking and advance warnings. Most use AI or machine learning techniques with high-volume computing that processes a massive volume of data points and is constantly updating in a way that would not be possible for human forecasters to maintain. This provides meteorologists with probabilistic forecasts at a higher resolution look at each storm’s specific threats.
Recently DTN* deployed a tropical storm model that uses a deep learning technique most commonly deployed or driverless cars to generate high-detail forecasts that include additional risk insights, such as hourly wind, precipitation, and storm surges across areas that impact up to seven days in advance. This provides an additional window of opportunity for supply chain managers to make alternative or contingency plans.
Understanding weather risks is core to hurricane preparation. For those managing supply chains, it’s key to strike the right balance between choosing the fastest, safest, or most efficient routes, whether planning for shipping, over-the-road, aviation, or rail transportation. By planning, accessing the most detailed forecasts available, and having a process in place for shifting operations outside an affected zone, supply chains can be more weather-resilient for optimum safety and efficiency.
*Author works for DTN
