Republished on December 4 with Microsoft’s confirmation on update restrictions.
Microsoft has a surprising new problem on its hands as it struggles to convince 800 million Windows 10 users to upgrade to Windows 11. With its popular ageing OS approaching end-of-support next October and sales of shiny new AI PCs not hitting the expected mark, this looks like being a critical holiday shopping season.
As I reported on Monday, the latest Windows stats from November show a marked end to the recent acceleration we’ve seen in Windows 11 upgrades. After eight steady months of transition from Windows 10 to Windows 11, the bad news is a sudden change in direction. And while that shift only accounts for around 1%—somewhere between 10 and 15 million users, the situation is much worse in the key US market.
According to Statcounter, globally Windows 10 market share was up from 61% to 62% over the month, with Windows 11 dropping from more than 35.5% to below 35%. But in the US, Windows 10 was up from 58% to 61%, with Windows 11 sharply down from nearly 40% to below 37% after six months of steady rises.
The global numbers fall within the margin of error to some extent, but the US numbers seem more clear-cut. This change comes after Microsoft’s confirmation of a 12-month extended support option for Windows 1 users from next October. This will cost $30 per PC, but for those stubborn Windows 10 holdouts, it could be worth it.
We don’t know what’s driven the specific conversions, but it could well be Windows 10 users revering an upgrade now they know they can stay on Windows 10 with support—meaning security updates—through until; October 2026. And while Microsoft continues to nag users to make thew switch, these constant ads and reminders are not proving as effective as hoped.
The interesting twist to these Windows 10 numbers is the 400 million or so users that don’t have the right hardware to upgrade. While there are various options to upgrade on a non-compatible PC, Microsoft has just firmed up its warning that doing so could stop further updates and even invalidate any hardware warranties still in place.
There is also the Copilot factor. Is there a view amongst Windows 10 users needing a hardware upgrade that the lounger they leave this the more cost effective that move will be? And with AI features still fairly limited, there’s little downside. We already know most hardware upgrades are still for basic devices rather than new AI features.
I’ve suggested before that the trend-line post the ESU announcement will be interesting to watch, albeit this is a faster change than expected. December’s numbers and the holiday season PC sales data will send a strong signal as to what 2025 will likely look like. And then we will have the ESU take-up to add into the mix.
Microsoft has emphasized repeatedly that Windows 11 is a much safer and more secure OS than Windows 10. And so this change means 10-15 million users now taking risks they would otherwise be protected against. Not good news.
The really bad news for Windows 10 users is that Microsoft published a blogpost on Tuesday that essentially slammed the door on any hardware backtrack when it comes to Windows 11 upgrades. “With Windows 10 end of support approaching,” it said, “it’s important to revisit a key minimum system requirement for Windows 11.”
This is all about TPM 2.0, of course: “Let’s discuss the role of TPM and its value for those of you who have made the transition to Windows 11. You’ll also learn how to check your TPM status and how to prepare for Windows 11.”
“You know that Windows 10 is approaching end of support,” the blog continues. “In Windows 11, TPM 2.0 advanced encryption techniques offer more versatile and critical key management for contemporary IT infrastructures, as compared to its predecessor, TPM 1.2. Integrating with features like Secure Boot and Windows Hello for Business, TPM 2.0 enhances security by ensuring that only verified software is executed and protecting confidential details. It’s true that its implementation might require a change for your organization. Yet it represents an important step toward more effectively countering today’s intricate security challenges.”
No back doors and no u-turns, Microsoft has made clear. “TPM 2.0 is not just a recommendation—it’s a necessity for maintaining a secure and future-proof IT environment with Windows 11. And it’s an important part of the larger Zero Trust strategy, alongside Secure Boot, Credential Guard, and Windows Hello for Business.”
And so those 400 million machines that don’t make the cut really do like they’re heading for landfill sites, with users having to upgrade by October 2026 at the latest. And while Microsoft does enable some upgrades on incompatible hardware, it only does so where users agree their support and warranties likely end.