Christmas Eve and Christmas Day may feature Northern Lights for some northern-tier U.S. states and northern Europe after a well-timed solar flare on the sun.
According to the models of space weather forecasters at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center, a G1 or G2-class geomagnetic storm on Earth’s atmosphere is expected to result late on Dec. 25.
There may also be some geomagnetic disturbance — possibly triggering aurora — on Dec. 24.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: When And Where
NOAA states that a G1 event could mean aurora is seen from Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine. If it becomes a G2 event, then the viewing area could be extended south to between New York and central Idaho.
Skywatchers are advised to keep an eye on NOAA’s 30-minute forecast and apps like Aurora Now. Only a G5 storm — as experienced on May 10-11 and Oct. 10-11 — can see aurora down to Florida, Arizona, and worldwide.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Solar Maximum
After the most recent global display of aurora on Oct. 10-11, the sun has been relatively quiet, ironically since NASA and NOAA’s Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel announced that the sun had reached its “solar maximum” phase, the peak of its 11-year solar cycle.
Despite the quiet period, solar activity has been at a 23-year high in 2024, with displays of the aurora borealis at more southerly latitudes than is typical.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Major Solar Flare
However, a large sunspot — a dark area of intense magnetic complexity on the sun’s surface — produced an M8.9-class solar flare at 11:12 UTC on Dec. 23. It was very nearly a powerful X-class event. What happened in its wake was decisive — a coronal mass ejection. Crucially, this cloud of charged particles ejected by the sun, rapidly accelerating into space, is Earth-directed.
According to SpaceWeather.com, “the bulk of the CME will miss Earth to the south,” but there is ”still a significant Earth-directed component.”
Space weather forecasters also detected two other solar flares on Dec. 24 — M4.7-class and M4.1-class events, respectively — which could affect on the nights to come if a CME results.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Exact Times
Exact timings and intensity are hard to predict. The G1 or G2 geomagnetic storm is tentatively forecast to occur between 15:00 and 21:00 UTC (10 a.m. and 4 p.m. EST/3 p.m. and 9 p.m. GMT), but space weather forecasters will be relying on the DSCOVR and ACE satellites to confirm when the arrival at Earth of the CMEs are imminent. It could arrive significantly earlier or later.
Only when its particles strike the sensors of these satellites, which orbit Earth about a million miles out, can NOAA’s forecasters know the characteristics of a CME. Depending on the speed of the CME, the satellites give about 15-30 minutes warning of a significant space weather event
DSCOVR and ACE measure a CME’s speed and magnetic intensity, which is critical in calculating how the solar wind is about to change.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Causes
The solar wind is a stream of charged particles from the sun interacting with Earth’s magnetic field. They’re super-charged by a coronal mass ejection that travels to Earth over a few days.
Aurora is typically seen in polar regions at around latitudes of 70 degrees north and south, but during extreme geomagnetic conditions — usually when CMEs arrive at Earth one after another or in tandem — the auroral oval can bulge, with displays then seen as low as 25 degrees north and south of the equator.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Colors
As charged particles strike Earth’s magnetic field, they accelerate down its magnetic field lines at the north and south poles to create ovals of green and red. Green aurora are caused by charged particles striking low-altitude oxygen molecules in the Earth’s atmosphere, while red aurora result from high-altitude oxygen molecules.
The colors tell you how high up the aurora you see. According to the Canadian Space Agency, green aurora occurs about 60-190 miles (100-300 kilometers) up, red aurora at about 180 to 250 miles (300 to 400 kilometers) and rarer blue about 60 miles (100 kilometers).
If you see red, you’re likely looking at the high-altitude edges of a display raging farther to the north.
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.
