Some meteorologists are a bit over the top when it comes to weather. Weather hyperbole is definitely a “thing” in this social media era. For that reason, I try to temper my weather risk communication posts. This morning, I alerted friends and family on Facebook of the potential risks associated with Tropical Depression Four, currently located near Cuba. I wrote, “Ok y’all…Sounding one of my rare major Weather Alerts……Let me explain.” The Tropical Depression will likely become Tropical Storm Debby later today and possibly even a hurricane. From there, multiple and sustained risks are possible for the U.S.
The storm will move into the Gulf of Mexico Saturday. This phase of the storm causes my initial concerns for the U.S. Water temperatures in that part of the Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm and wind shear conditions are also favorabe for further development. I wouldn’t be surprised of it strengthened to a strong tropical storm or hurricane before landfall. In fact, a Hurricane Watch has already been posted for the Big Bend region of northern Florida. Tropical Warnings are posted for the western coast of Florida.
The National Hurricane Center 5 am discussion even warns, “Although the latest NHC forecast does not explicitly show the cyclone becoming a hurricane, note that additional strengthening could occur between 48-60 hours.” The first U.S. looks to be somewhere in Florida between Apalachicola Bay and Tampa. This is the same area that dealth with Hurricane Idalia in 2023. Hurricane watches are already up for parts of Florida.
The second phase that concerns me depends on whether the storm remains inland or emerges back over water off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. Two of our best models, at the time of writing, suggest that the “back over water” scenario is more likely. As the storm moves through south and coastal Georgia, it will produce flooding rainfall and significant winds. To make matters worse, weather models indicate that the storm will stall off of the coast. Coastal regions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and north Florida could see dangerous rainfall amounts through the end of the work week. My meteorological expertise allows me to understandy why the models also show intensification. The storm would be sitting over the warm Gulf Stream water. Both aforementioned models have the storm parked through the end of the week.
By the weekend, the storm moves through the Mid-Atlantic region with ton of rainfall. Even Canada could be affected by the remnants of Debby before it is all said and day. As usual, the National Hurricane Center shoud always be your primary source of information in such evolving scenarious. My gut tells me things will over the next few days and not in a favorabe way in terms of intensity, rainfall totals, and coastal risks.
