Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” is on a pace to collect at least $330 million in worldwide ticket sales for Warner Bros. by the end of its run, several box office analysts said, a haul that would put it in Hollywood’s horror hall of fame.
Ticket sales on that level, for instance, would be on a par with those for Jordan Peele’s Oscar-winning “Get Out,” which took in $256 million globally in 2017, or $337 million when adjusted for inflation. Among original horror movies, “Sinners” would be the biggest since 2018, when “A Quiet Place,” directed by John Krasinski, took in $440 million in today’s dollars.
In terms of franchise-starting horror films, “Sinners” would rank higher than John Carpenter’s original “Halloween,” which generated $47 million in 1978, or an adjusted $241 million. “Sinners” would be in line with Wes Craven’s first “Scream” ($358 million) and far above James Wan’s “Saw” ($180 million) and Oren Peli’s “Paranormal Activity” ($293 million).
Mr. Coogler didn’t conceive of “Sinners,” an audacious Southern vampire fantasia set in the 1930s, as part of a series. “I wanted the movie to feel like a full meal: your appetizers, starters, entrees and desserts — I wanted all of it there,” he told Ebony magazine. “I wanted it to be a holistic and finished thing.”
But “Sinners” could easily start one if Mr. Coogler changed his mind, giving him immense power in Hollywood in general and at Warner Bros. in particular.
“What is impressing everyone is how deeply the movie is connecting and bringing audiences back for repeat viewing and expanding the audience,” David A. Gross, a film consultant who publishes a newsletter on box office numbers, said on Friday.
“The movie is going to be worth a fortune in streaming,” he added. “Sinners” will exclusively appear on Max, the streaming service affiliated with Warner Bros.
Warner Bros. declined to comment. The studio’s internal estimates show “Sinners” finishing between $300 million and $330 million.
“Sinners” was an instant success when it arrived in theaters in mid-April. Warner Bros. initially estimated that it had collected $46 million in the United States and Canada during its first weekend, later revising the figure to $48 million.
Even so, it was not immediately clear when or if “Sinners” would make money for Warner Bros., which spent at least $150 million to make and market the film. As the creative force behind the “Black Panther” and “Creed” franchises, Mr. Coogler, 38, was a highly sought-after filmmaker. To win the rights — multiple studios bid on the project — Warner Bros. agreed to give Mr. Coogler a cut of gross ticket sales (before a studio deducts costs).
And theaters keep roughly 50 percent of the gross.
Several analysts said on April 20 that for Warner Bros. to make money, “Sinners” would need to attract substantial crowds in the weeks ahead. Its ability to do so was a question: Most movies have a difficult time drawing continued attention from consumers these days, even if they have terrific reviews.
“The trajectory for this film was predicted by no one,” Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst at Comscore, which collects box office data, said in an email. (Mr. Coogler’s fans would most likely beg to differ.)
Mr. Dergarabedian noted that domestic ticket sales for “Sinners” had declined only 5 percent from its first weekend to the second, one of the smallest such declines on record for a movie arriving to more than $35 million. Only James Cameron’s “Avatar” (2009) ranks better, with a 2 percent decline.
In its zeal to work with Mr. Coogler, Warner Bros. also agreed to relinquish its ownership of “Sinners” after 25 years. Mr. Coogler, who wrote, directed and produced the movie, would then own it.
Some rival film companies were shocked that Warner Bros. would give a film away, even after 25 years. Other studios, however, have occasionally made similar deals for other filmmakers, including Quentin Tarantino, who first secured “ownership reversion” in the 1990s while making films for Miramax.
Mike De Luca, a chief executive of the Warner Bros. Motion Picture Group, called industry consternation over the ownership aspect of the deal “ignorant and laughable” in an interview with The Hollywood Reporter published on April 22.
Mr. Coogler “made a pretty effective case for this movie, especially with its themes of Black ownership,” Mr. De Luca told that trade publication. “Frankly, we’re proud to be able to give it to Ryan.”
