The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has a range of options when they meet next week. The first question is to cut, or not to cut.
Most of Wall Street believes a cut is a foregone conclusion. But that then presents another choice: How much to cut by.
Fed officials have been signalling a swing in their stance from a tight grasp on monetary policy to a loosening of rates, in order to make money cheaper to borrow and, in turn, keep employment low.
Among those who think a cut needs to happen sooner rather than later are Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and even chairman Jerome Powell himself.
But following some bumpy reports from the labor sector, Wall Street is now weighing up how deeply Powell and his peers will cut.
Any reduction in the base rate will be welcome news. The base rate is currently at a more than two-decade high, and hasn’t been reduced since early 2020. The tightening was—by most analysts’ estimations—necessary in order to wrestle down rampant inflation.
Experts are, on the other hand, now divided on how quickly the FOMC needs to rebalance policy in line with its dual mandate: Getting inflation to its target 2% and maintaining maximum employment.
Some called for an emergency cut after a lackluster jobs report in August—but many have since revised this to questioning whether Powell’s cut will be of 25 basis points (bps) or 50 bps (0.25% or 0.5%).
Former New York Federal Reserve president Bill Dudley is the latest to call for 50.
“I think there’s a strong case for 50, whether they’re going to do it or not,” he told the Bretton Woods Committee’s annual Future of Finance Forum in Singapore, per Reuters.
He added the base rate is currently floating between restrictive enough to keep pushing down inflation and loose enough to kickstart borrowing and growth.
“So the question is: ‘Why don’t you just get started?’” he added.
‘A small chance’
Like Dudley, bank analysts are aware but not convinced the Fed could cut by 50 basis points.
Their thinking has been—thus far—that the FOMC would cut by the smallest increment they have in their arsenal, in order to loosen monetary policy without inviting inflation back in. With interest rates at 5.25%, the fed has 21 cuts of 0.25% available before it hits zero. It doesn’t want to waste them by cutting too soon and then running out of ammo if things get worse later.
Bank of America’s Aditya Bhave and Shruti Mishra wrote in a note seen by Fortune earlier this week that “there is still a small chance of a 50bp cut.”
The economists explained this chink of opportunity is courtesy of “not particularly strong” August employment data and downward revisions to job growth in June and July.
“At the time of this writing, markets are pricing 30bp in cuts, or a 20% chance of a 50bp cut,” they added.
UBS’s Brian Rose, senior U.S. economist, also isn’t shutting the door on a 50bp cut but isn’t pricing it in either. In a note seen by Fortune he wrote: “In our view, the inflation data has been good enough to allow the Fed to start cutting rates in September, but does not give them a reason to cut aggressively.
“Data for retail sales and industrial production in August will be released on 17 September and could potentially influence the Fed’s decision, but would probably have to be much weaker than expected to trigger a 50 bps cut.”
As such UBS is maintaining its 100bp total cut prediction by year-end with another 100bp across 2025.
A boost to markets
The FOMC has been steadfast that their decision won’t be swayed by politicians or the market.
But that hasn’t stopped economists pointing out that a more significant rate cut might conveniently rally analysts.
As Professor Jeremy Siegel points out in his weekly commentary for investment specialists WisdomTree: “The market has clearly expressed concerns, aligning with my longstanding view that the Federal Reserve is considerably behind the curve.
“Many argue that a significant initial rate cut of 50bp by the Fed at next week’s meeting would panic investors.”
But Professor Siegel, who is a senior economist to WisdomTree and Emeritus Professor of Finance at The Wharton School adds: “However, the immediate rally in the Dow following remarks from Chris Waller … that he will be open to a larger rate cut counters this view, underscoring my stance that a more aggressive rate cut strategy would boost markets.”
