A lot of projectiles have been flying across the Persian Gulf recently, despite the U.S.-Iran agreement to extend their ceasefire and negotiate a lasting peace.
On Saturday, Iran launched drones at Bahrain, which is home to a U.S. Navy base. The Islamic republic was also likely responsible for an attack on a commercial ship.
That came a day after U.S. Central Command said it struck Iranian missile and drone locations as well as coastal radar sites in response to earlier attacks on ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
It was the latest attempt by Tehran to scare away vessels that are not using the regime-approved route through the narrow waterway that’s critical to the global energy market and is Iran’s main source of leverage.
Meanwhile, the U.S. previously carved out an alternate path that runs along Oman’s coast and said Saturday that it’s been expanded to accommodate inbound and outbound traffic, making it more appealing as supplies that had been bottled up in the Gulf during the war need to get out.
“Iran is likely attempting to prevent vessels from using non-Iranian shipping channels with force in the immediate term as it continues negotiations with the Gulf Arab states to secure long-term recognition of its control,” the Institute for the Study of War said in a note on Friday.
The think tank also highlighted other efforts to undermine Iran’s influence over the strait. For example, Oman and the International Maritime Organization established a mechanism to help hundreds of vessels move through the route along the Omani coast.
Central Command also said it’s providing “safe passage coordination” in the strait, while the U.S. and the Gulf Cooperation Council issued a joint statement Thursday stressing free navigation through the strait and rejecting any tolls, fees, or other attempts to assert control.
Iran has responded with drone attacks and additional warnings that safe passage through the strait can’t rely on “parallel routes” or decision-making outside Tehran, according to ISW.
At the same time, the regime is engaging in diplomacy with its Gulf neighbors in an attempt to solidify its control over the strait. But ISW said it’s not working, adding that Iran can’t keep relying on military options.
“Iran needs Gulf states’ recognition of its control over Iran’s route to maintain control over the strait because it cannot conduct attacks in perpetuity without risking instability and additional attacks,” the note said.
The renewed hostilities follow the first meeting last weekend between the U.S. and Iran since the ceasefire extension was signed.
While both sides touted progress, much more work has to be done to address Iran’s nuclear program, unfreezing of its assets, and easing of U.S. sanctions—not to mention the continued fighting over the Strait of Hormuz.
Its closure soon after the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran crippled global energy markets, and a return to normal is expected to take months.
The U.S. was unable to restore freedom of navigation through the strait, despite its ability to shepherd through a trickle of ships, allowing Iran to hold the threat of another closure over the world economy.
With that knowledge, Tehran has tried to normalize its control, establishing a Persian Gulf Strait Authority and insisting it can charge fees on ships.
The recent flurry of drone attacks on commercial ships raised the ante, while the U.S. also ramps up its effort to punch a bigger hole through the strait. On Saturday, the Joint Maritime Information Center raised the threat level in the strait to “substantial” from “moderate.”
“But be prepared for it to return to S#!T at any moment,” Campbell University professor Sal Mercogliano, who specializes in military and maritime history, said in a post on X.
