Topline
Skywatchers could see a modest display of the Northern Lights visible from northern U.S. states along the U.S.-Canada border on Friday, May 23, 2025, according to the latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast.
Key Facts
According to NOAA, “An enhancement of the geomagnetic field up to active levels with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels is possible” on May 23.
The cause is significant turbulence in the solar wind — a constant stream of charged particles emanating from the sun that can interact with Earth’s magnetic field — caused by the arrival of a coronal mass ejection that left the sun on May 17.
A CME is a cloud of super-charged particles that often leaves the sun’s surface in the wake of a solar flare, an intense burst of radiation and the most powerful explosions in the solar system, according to NASA.
Space weather forecasters are unsure of when — or even if — the CME will interact with Earth’s magnetic field, with Spaceweather.com reporting that it “might deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field,” but that “a miss is just as likely as a hit.”
U.s. States That May See The Northern Lights
If the CME does interact with Earth’s magnetic field, the aurora borealis may be visible tonight in northern-tier U.S. states. Observers will need clear skies to have a chance of seeing the potential display. According to NOAA, G1 storms can be seen in Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine. NOAA’s 30-minute forecast is where the latest updates are posted.
Likely Intensity
The potential displays of aurora borealis tonight have a predicted Kp index of 4, which provides a rough guide to their intensity. According to NOAA, that means “the aurora will move further from the poles, it will become brighter, and there will be more auroral activity (motion and formations). If you are in the right place, these aurora can be quite pleasing to look at.”
A Coronal Hole Faces Earth
A massive coronal hole has been facing Earth all week. That puts the planet in the “Earth strike zone” for any turbulence in the solar wind, which is what causes spikes in aurora. A coronal hole refers to darker, cooler areas of the corona, the sun’s outer atmosphere, which are cooler, less dense regions. They allow the solar wind to escape more easily into space.
A Symptom Of Solar Maximum
Coronal holes and CMEs are more common around solar maximum, which the sun appears to have reached in October 2023, according to NASA and NOAA. The sun has an 11-year solar cycle, during which its magnetic activity waxes and wanes. An extreme G5 geomagnetic storm on May 10-11, 2024, was the most intense since 2004 and possibly for hundreds of years.
Tangent
Mercury has no aurora, but all the other planets — and some moons — in the solar system do. Mercury lacks a true atmosphere, but auroral activity has been detected on Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Last week, NASA announced that its Perseverance rover on Mars had spotted aurora. Meanwhile, Jupiter boasts the brightest and fastest-moving auroras, displaying vibrant colors, while the intense radiation around the giant planet also causes auroras on its moons, Ganymede and Europa.
