Topline
U.S. fertility rates in 2023 reached the lowest levels since records began, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Thursday, returning to a longstanding trend of Americans having fewer babies after a temporary uplift during the Covid-19 pandemic as concerns grow over reproductive healthcare.
Key Facts
There were just under 3.6 million babies born in the U.S. in 2023, according to provisional data released by the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, a drop of 2% from the year before.
The data, based on more than 99% of birth certificates issued that year, is broadly in line with a general annual decline of roughly 1-2% over the last decade, a steady drop punctuated only by a steep plunge of 4% at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic followed by a modest, expectation-defying pandemic “baby bump.”
The birth rate for women of childbearing age — a category covering females ages 15 to 44 — was 54.4 births per 1,000, the CDC report said, down 3% from 2022.
NCHS demographer Brady Hamilton, the report’s lead author, said the rate is the lowest since the center started compiling data on new births, falling below the previous low of around 56 births per 1,000 in 2020.
Teen births also hit a new record low last year with 13.2 births for every 1,000 teens ages 15 to 19, though the drop of 3% was smaller than the average decline of 7% a year from 2007 through 2022, the report said, without offering an explanation for the fall or the flattening rate.
The rate of cesarean deliveries, which now account for almost a third of all deliveries (32.4%), also increased for the fourth consecutive year, the CDC report said, the highest rate since 2012 and with rates highest for Black mothers (37%).
Surprising Fact
The U.S.’ fertility rate for 2023 is well below a threshold demographers call the replacement rate. This is the fertility rate needed for the current generation to replace itself, rather than grow or shrink. The CDC puts this threshold at 2,100 births per 1,000 women. The U.S. has “generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement since 2007,” the report said.
Key Background
While U.S. birth rates have been in broad decline for decades, this continued decline comes at a time of growing concern over access to reproductive healthcare and intensely politicized debate over abortion access, as well as concerns over the economy, a lack of rights for working parents and growing fears over the future of the planet. The U.S. is not alone in experiencing demographic change and changing birth rates are set to drive major global shifts in power over coming decades. The continued failure to meet replacement rate thresholds around the world is of growing concern to many policymakers, scientists and officials. Many countries like China and Japan have been trying to encourage people to have more kids and a birth rate below the replacement rate signals major demographic shifts on the horizon. In particular, it portends sluggish growth, an aging population and an economy that one day may struggle to find enough workers to fill jobs and pay the taxes required to maintain the state and care for a large elderly population, whose health and other needs often require far more expenditure per capita than younger people.
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