Census Bureau data released on Tuesday showed a surge in U.S. imports starting last fall, from $268 billion at the end of October to $343 billion at the end of March, reflecting a push by major American companies to buy goods ahead of anticipated tariffs. The U.S. trade deficit for goods widened in March to a record high.
Finished consumer goods that wholesalers and retailers import directly from China make up the bulk of the items expected to be most affected at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports, said Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University.
“This is just a pure demand destruction scenario at the moment, where there’s just not as much stuff coming in,” Dr. Miller said.
The Port of Los Angeles, for example, handles a large volume of furniture imports, which are likely to decline sharply. Imports of plastic products from China, such as scooters and toys, are set to fall drastically at the Port of Long Beach. East Coast ports are likely to see a similar drop in shipping volume a couple weeks after the decline hits the West Coast, Dr. Miller said.
If the downturn in imports is sustained, the effects on employment and economic growth are likely to extend far beyond the ports themselves. Moving fewer containers means not just less work for dockworkers, but also subdued demand for trucking and warehouse jobs.
“That, of course, has ripple effects for the broader economic community,” Dr. Miller said.
Data compiled by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, an investment firm, showed a steep decline in the number of containers heading to the United States from China, starting this month. In a research note last week, Mr. Slok said a drop in shipments from China could lead to “significant layoffs” in the trucking, logistics and retail sectors in May.
