As our Crystal Ball series continues, it’s time to drill down into specific sectors.
Term Sheet readers, generally speaking, are an optimistic bunch. But there’s a lot of concern about whether we’re prepared to meet growing cybersecurity risks, with one reader predicting that even Fortune 500 CEOs will be in the crosshairs as high-stakes breaches materialize.
AI, of course, is at the center of these escalating cybersecurity risks, and at the changes that are happening in industries like robotics and healthcare. But some industries, like fintech and crypto, have created their own waves of transformation and possibility.
Without further ado (since you all had quite a lot to say) here’s what Term Sheet readers see ahead across the business landscape.
Note: Answers have been edited for clarity and brevity.
The cybersecurity stakes hit an all-time high
Cyberwar is no longer a future threat – it’s the present reality, with nation-states like China and Russia pursuing coordinated, long-term strategies that align with their geopolitical goals. —Snehal Antani, CEO and cofounder, Horizon3.ai
Trust becomes an engineering requirement, not a marketing message. Black-box AI will hit a wall in regulated industries. “Mostly correct” is not good enough when wrong answers carry real consequences. —Joel Hron, Thomson Reuters CTO
In 2026, AI browsers will move fully into an ask-and-act model, changing how people interact with the web. This convenience introduces new security risks. —Etay Maor, vice president, threat intelligence, Cato Networks
In 2026, we’ll see the first major enterprise breach caused by an AI agent behaving in unexpected ways. As autonomous systems become more deeply embedded in operations, emergent behavior will create a new class of cyber risk. —Aaron Jacobson, partner, NEA
By the end of 2026, we will see at least three Fortune 500 CEOs lose their roles explicitly due to AI system failures that their organizations cannot explain, reproduce or defend post-incident. Unlike past outages tied to infra or human error, these failures will stem from opaque AI decision paths. —Sameer Agarwal, cofounder and CTO, Deductive AI
Fintech and crypto at a crossroads
In 2026, stablecoins will just be part of your next app update on your phone. The next major app to be powered by stablecoins is one you’re already using. —Itai Turbahn, CEO and cofounder, Dynamic
Crypto credit cards will bridge the gap between traditional and digital finance in 2026. This transition will position exchanges to be comprehensive financial hubs that could compete with traditional banks and fintechs, rather than just a digital asset platform. —Matthew Goldman, founder, Totavi
Banks will lose more mass affluent customers to fintechs in 2026 than ever before. It used to be that fintechs served the customers Banks didn’t want. The less affluent. The young. Now fintechs have grown up and so have their customers. —Rex Salisbury, founder and general partner, Cambrian
Stablecoins have proven blockchain’s first killer app beyond store of value, regulation is clarifying, and institutions are finally entering the space – setting up 2026 and 2027 as some of the strongest blockchain venture vintages yet. The irony? Most LPs will sit this out, distracted by Bitcoin’s volatility theatrics and the AI gold rush. By the time the noise clears, the best funds will have been raised and committed. —Aaron Miller, head of global venture capital, CF Private Equity
As C.S. Lewis wrote, “There are far, far better things ahead than any we leave behind.” For financial services, the year ahead will prove it. —Sarah Biller, cofounder, Fintech Sandbox
The future of healthcare and its many offshoots
AI will discover at least one groundbreaking pharmaceutical that will start Phase I clinical trials. —Kanyi Maqubela, managing partner, Kindred Ventures:
The American consumer is more diverse than ever, and we are aging – by 2030 Americans over 65 will outnumber those under 18 for the first time in U.S. history. In 2026 we will see more investor activity into these areas, such as menopause, longevity medicine, elder care, and more. —Erin Harkless Moore, managing director of investments, Pivotal Ventures
In 2026, rising healthcare costs and continued strain on the nation’s public health infrastructure will act as a powerful catalyst across the industry. Employers, insurers, health systems and providers will all feel the pressure, setting off a ripple effect that is likely to accelerate dealmaking. —Amanda Zablocki, partner, co-leader of national healthcare team, Sheppard Mullin
2026 will be the year AI feels clinically real. With tools like OpenEvidence already adopted by nearly half of U.S. physicians, healthcare is moving faster than software. AI “colleagues” aka digital nurses, doctors, and copilots will eliminate non-clinical work and personalize care at scale. The next healthcare revolution won’t come from hospitals or insurers, it’ll come from AI workflows physicians already trust. —Latif Peracha, general partner, M13
In 2026, the next wave of healthcare transformation will happen at home. As reimbursement pressures mount, providers will increasingly turn to home-based care models that pair automation with intelligent, agentic AI workflows. —Irem Rami, Partner, Norwest
Demographics don’t lie: the caregiver-to-patient ratio will continue collapsing. Leading systems will begin preparing for the 2030 reality by investing in models that extend human touch without requiring more humans. Expect more deliberate reliance on recovery support partners, proactive monitoring, and simplified patient pathways. —Kyle Cooksey, CEO, Deacon Health
The next big consumer-health category isn’t new or exotic. It’s fiber. Gut health is going mainstream, GLP-1s are reshaping eating habits, and 90 percent of adults still don’t get enough daily fiber. The brands that approach fiber with science-forward messaging, innovation, and real consumer education to build daily habits will win this underserved market. —Lisa Wu, partner, Norwest
Defense and robotics
2026 will see the return of the Valley of Death to defense tech as the law of large numbers forces growing companies to seek larger and larger contracts in the context of a slow-growing defense budget. —Peter Wilczynski, CPO, Vantor
Dual‑use deep tech continues its shift from niche to mainstream. For many years, defense was a difficult category for venture capital. That’s changing fast as governments recognize these firms are essential to sovereignty and resilience—global military expenditures are growing at their highest rates since the Cold War. We expect dual‑use companies to become some of the most attractive growth stories in 2026. —Nic Brathwaite, founding managing partner, Celesta Capital
Defense tech investing will continue to gain momentum globally. The continued conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have convinced the EU to invest almost a trillion dollars to rearm themselves and ensure a sovereign defense posture. —Brad Harrison, managing partner, Scout
In 2026, aerospace and defense investing is primed to accelerate further with more investors entering the sector and deal structures broadening across dual-use and mission-critical technology. The full force of that upswing is highly dependent on U.S. defense contracts rolling again. —Anita Antenucci, founder and managing partner, 3Wire
AI starts to hit the physical world: robots begin to move out of the lab and ship the first production-ready, end-to-end systems into biopharma labs, manufacturing lines, and logistics warehouses. Not prototypes. Not pilots. Revenue-generating deployments that deliver ROI. —Talia Goldberg, partner, Bessemer Venture Partners
Robotics reaches escape velocity, and the real boom hits in 2027. 2026 marks the rapid emergence of a unified robotics market. The true mainstream adoption wave — warehouses, micro-factories, home services—hits in 2027 as platforms stabilize. —Anders Ranum, partner, Sapphire Ventures
Silicon Valley is shifting its attention back to hardware as demand for compute and energy accelerates. Chips, energy systems and critical physical infrastructure are reemerging as the engines of the next wave of progress. Robotics is set to become one of the most important innovation arenas as we move toward 2026. —Luke Pappas, partner, NEA
We think 2026 will be the year where we start to see deployments of this new generation of AI-driven robotic systems in industrial (manufacturing and logistics) settings and service industries such as hospitality and healthcare. —Emily Zhao, principal, Salesforce Ventures
See you tomorrow,
Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: [email protected]
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VENTURE CAPITAL
– Soley Therapeutics, a South San Francisco, Calif.-based drug discovery and development company, raised $200 million in Series C funding. Surveyor Capital led the round and was joined by HRTG Partners, RWN Management, and existing investors.
– Corsera Health, a Boston, Mass.-based cardiovascular health prediction and prevention platform, raised $80 million in Series A funding. Forbion and Population Health Partners led the round and were joined by others.
– Mediar Therapeutics, a Boston, Mass.-based developer of therapies designed to stop fibrosis, raised $76 million in Series B funding. ICG Life Sciences and Amplitude Ventures led the round.
– Blackbird.AI, a New York City-based developer of an AI model designed to identify narrative threats to companies, raised $28 million in funding from Ten Eleven Ventures, Dorilton Ventures, and others.
– Luminate, a Galway, Ireland-based at-home cancer treatment company, raised $21 million in Series A funding. ARTIS Ventures and Lachy Groom led the round and were joined by Western Alliance Life Sciences and existing investors 8VC, Y Combinator, Atlantic Bridge, and others.
– Autonomous Technologies Group, a New York City-based developer of AI agents designed to serve as financial advisors, raised $15 million in pre-seed funding from Y Combinator, Collaborative Group, Fusion Fund, and others.
– Biographica, a London, U.K.-based company using AI to decode crop genetics, raised £7 million ($9.4 million) in seed funding. Faber VC led the round and was joined by SuperSeed, Cardumen Capital, The Helm, EQT Foundation, Sie Ventures, and existing investors.
– AgileRL, a London, U.K.-based developer of AI training, tuning, and deployment company, raised $7.5 million in funding. Fusion Fund led the round and was joined by Flying Fish, Octopus Ventures, Entrepreneur First, and Counterview Capital.
– Oasys, a New York City-based developer of an AI-powered operating system for behavioral health, raised $4.6 million in funding from Pathlight Ventures, Twine Ventures, Better Ventures, and 1984 Ventures.
PRIVATE EQUITY
– Arxis, a portfolio company of Arcline Investment Management, acquired Micro-Tronics, a Tempe, Ariz.-based producer of components for aerospace and defense applications. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Atar Capital acquired DataMaster Online, a Saint-Grégoire, France-based printing solutions company. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– ATL Partners acquired SkyMark Companies, a Kansas City, Mo.-based manufacturer of aircraft fueling trucks and hydrant dispensers, and Rampmaster, a Coatesville, Pa.-based manufacturer of aircraft refueling solutions. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– AxioAero Group, a portfolio company of CORE Industrial Partners, acquired Airway Aerospace, a Doral, Fla.-based airplane repair company. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Gemspring Capital acquired TRG, a Cleveland, Ohio-based provider of enterprise mobility and technology lifecycle management solutions. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Gryphon Investors announced a majority recapitalization of Fortreum, a Lansdowne, Va.-based cybersecurity firm. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Kelvin Group, backed by Southfield Capital, acquired PermaCold Engineering, a Portland, Ore.-based ammonia and carbon dioxide refrigeration system company. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– PestCo Holdings, a portfolio company of Thompson Street Capital Partners, acquired Bio-Tech Pest Control, a Spring, Texas-based pest control company. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Proven Optics, a portfolio company of Silversmith Capital Partners, acquired brightfin, a Centennial, Colo.-based developer of Service Now Technology Expense Management and digital workplace solutions. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– PureStar, backed by Cornell Capital, acquired Emerald Textiles, a San Diego, Calif.-based health care linen services provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– TA Associates acquired a majority stake in OneSource Virtual, a Dallas, Texas-based provider of HR payments services for the Workday ecosystem. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– The Blackhawk Group, backed by New State Capital, acquired Silver Sky Aviation, a Wasilla, Ak.-based aircraft maintenance company. Financial terms were not disclosed.
EXITS
– A. O. Smith acquired Leonard Valve, a Cranston, R.I.-based water temperature control valve company, from Bessemer Investors. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Service Express, a portfolio company of Warburg Pincus, acquired Park Place Technologies, a Cleveland, Ohio-based IT infrastructure services company, from GTCR and Charlesbank. Financial terms were not disclosed.
IPOS
– Aktis Oncology, a Boston, Mass.-based biotech company focused on solid tumors, now plans to raise up to $318.6 million in an offering of 17.7 million shares priced between $16 and $18 on the Nasdaq. The company posted $6 million in revenue for the year ended Sept. 30. MPM BioImpact, Vida Ventures, EcoR1 Capital, and Blue Owl Capital Holdings back the company.
FUNDS + FUNDS OF FUNDS
– Warburg Pincus, a New York City-based private equity firm, raised $3 billion for its third fund focused on financial services companies.
– Lux Capital, a New York City and Menlo Park, Calif.-based venture capital firm, raised $1.5 billion for its ninth fund focused on emerging science and technology companies.
PEOPLE
– Savory Fund, a Lehi, Utah-based private equity firm, promoted Shauna K. Smith to managing director and named Clay Dover as CEO. Formerly, Dover was CEO of Velvet Taco.
