Cases of female breast cancer look set to to rise by 38% worldwide over the next 25 years, while deaths from the disease could increase by 68%, according to an analysis by international scientists.
In the U.S., cases are expected to rise from nearly 275,000 in 2022 to more than 350,000 in 2050, if current trends continue. Deaths are also predicted to increase from nearly 43,000 to nearly 64,000 over the same time period.
Factors including age, family history, inherited genetic faults and lifestyle factors like alcohol intake and physical activity can influence breast cancer risk. As populations grow and age, more cases are expected to occur.
Breast Cancer Inequalities
The figures from the World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer translate to around 3.2m new breast cancer cases and 1.1m deaths a year by 2050, with lower-income countries disproportionately hit.
Populations with the highest rates of breast cancer diagnosis currently include Australia and New Zealand, Northern Europe and Northern America. But those with the highest mortality rates include Melanesia, Polynesia and Western Africa.
In fact, more than half (56%) of women diagnosed with breast cancer in the least developed countries to die from their disease, compared with around 17% in the most developed countries, according to the analysis, which was published in Nature Medicine Monday. This is likely because of faster diagnosis, better access to screening programs and more comprehensive breast cancer management.
Even in high-income countries, poorer members of society tend to face worse breast cancer outcomes than wealthier.
“Every minute, four women are diagnosed with breast cancer worldwide and one woman dies from the disease, and these statistics are worsening,” Dr. Joanne Kim, an IARC scientist and co-author of the report, said in a statement.
Breast Cancer Mortality
Although the total numbers of cases and deaths are rising, the proportion of people dying from breast cancer fell in 30 out of 46 countries with high-quality data between 2008 and 2017.
But this rate isn’t falling as quickly as hoped. Only seven countries met the WHO’s breast cancer mortality reduction target of 2.5% per year over this period: Malta, Belgium, Denmark, Switzerland, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Slovenia.
Of seven countries that saw their breast cancer mortality level rise, four were among the least developed according to the Human Development Index, which assesses countries on education, life expectancy and income.
Breast Cancer Data
The researchers called for better cancer recording in less developed countries, many of whom could not be included because of a paucity of data, despite the fact they are expected to see rising case numbers as their life expectancy increases.
“This report highlights the urgent need for high-quality cancer data and accurate records of the number of new diagnoses and outcomes in countries with low and medium HDI,” said Dr Isabelle Soerjomataram, Deputy Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC.
“Continued progress in early diagnosis and improved access to treatment are essential to address the global gap in breast cancer and ensure that the goal of reducing suffering and death from breast cancer is achieved by all countries worldwide.”
