OpenAI and Anthropic are both planning to go public. However, as the second half of 2026 begins, chances are increasing that both companies could delay their IPOs beyond the original fourth quarter 2026 target. In my view, the two companies are competing with each other to be the first one to have a successful IPO; yet both companies seem to be delaying and trying new tactics to strengthen their IPO.
For example, OpenAI is reportedly offering to sell 5% of the company to the U.S. government. Meanwhile, the U.S. forced Anthropic to withdraw its latest Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models to prevent foreign nationals—including Anthropic employees who were foreign nationals—from accessing its newest models, citing national security concerns, according to Forbes. Two and a half weeks later, the Department of Commerce lifted export controls on the models. In general, both companies are being forced to reckon with the likelihood that the U.S. government could take steps to block or slow down future model introductions.
At the same time, enterprise customers are trying to limit how much their employees are spending on monthly AI subscriptions which could force OpenAI and Anthropic to reduce their prices even as their computing costs remain high.
Simply put, despite all their success, OpenAI and Anthropic are facing very difficult market conditions as they approach their IPOs. Whichever company goes first is likely to determine the trajectory of the one that follows. If Anthropic goes out first and its stock goes way up after the IPO and keeps rising; the same is more likely to happen with OpenAI. If the first IPO goes badly, however, the same thing could happen with the second one. Or, a bad first IPO could delay further the second one.
Anthropic And OpenAI’s Race To The Public Markets
Both OpenAI and Anthropic have stated their interest in going public this year. Over the last year or so, a debate was playing out in public between Sarah Friar, OpenAI’s chief financial officer – who argued for delaying the IPO to prepare the company’s financial statements and operating results for public markets – and CEO Sam Altman who appeared eager to beat its rival to the IPO market with a $1 trillion valuation. Last month, the arguments for delay appeared to be prevailing due to the rocky debut of SpaceX, according to the New York Times.
Meanwhile, Anthropic has been facing problems with the U.S. government as the company aims for a $1 trillion IPO this fall. For example, in April, the Pentagon labelled Anthropic a “supply chain risk” after it refused to accept Pentagon contract language. Then, in June, the government imposed export controls on Anthropic’s latest models – Mythos and Fable – after the discovery of a Fable “jailbreak that could allow users to circumvent guardrails designed to prevent users from accessing Mythos’ full cyber capabilities,” noted Fortune.
The export ban ended June 30, however, it appears that Altman is winning the battle for President Donald Trump’s favor while Dario Amodei refuses to play along, added Fortune.
Side-By-Side IPO Comparison
Both companies filed initial public offering prospectuses in June, they are both aiming for IPOs in the fall; their latest private market valuations are close – but at $965 billion, Anthropic was valued at $113 billion more than OpenAI; Anthropic’s $47 billion annual recurring revenue estimate for 2026 is about double OpenAI’s and the companies have different hyperscaler backers.
Examining The State Of OpenAI And Anthropic
Key Strategic Differences And Similarities
Both companies have significant similarities. They are well known brands, they have large numbers of subscribers, their value as private companies is approaching $1 trillion, their revenues are growing quickly and they are burning through significant amounts of cash.
The two companies have different strategies, though. OpenAI targets mass market consumers with help from ChatGPT which pioneered large language models with its November 2022 launch and now boasts more than 900 million weekly active users. Anthropic’s revenue comes from enterprises (80% of total) and Claude keeps those customers by prioritizing AI safety, precision and advanced coding capabilities.
Perhaps more importantly, Anthropic’s refusal to curry favor with Trump contrasts sharply with Altman’s sycophantic approach.
OpenAI And Anthropic Business Overview
OpenAI and Anthropic are structured as public benefit corporations, a for-profit entity legally required to balance financial returns with a social or environmental mission. That said, they have slight differences; their major investors include hyperscalers and venture capital firms; Anthropic is growing faster – about 10x 2025 revenue – compared to three or four-fold growth for OpenAI; and both companies are expected to burn through billions in cash in 2026.
OpenAI And Anthropic Corporate Structure And Governance
While both companies began with distinct non-standard structures to balance AI safety with commercial demands, they have diverged significantly as they approach their respective IPOs.
In October 2025, OpenAI changed its structure from a complex “capped-profit” model into a for-profit PBC. However, the OpenAI Foundation (its non-profit arm) retained a 26% equity stake and maintained complete governance control by holding the power to appoint the entire PBC board of directors.
Anthropic was founded as a Delaware Public Benefit Corporation, but its governance is insulated by the Long-Term Benefit Trust (LTBT) – an independent body of five financially disinterested trustees with the legal power to prioritize AI safety and public benefit over shareholder returns. Over time, this Trust has the authority to elect a majority of Anthropic’s corporate board.
OpenAI And Anthropic Financial Footprint And Growth Trajectory
While both companies are burning about the same large amount of cash, Anthropic has grown much faster. Anthropic’s agentic enterprise product Claude Code was the major contributor to the company’s 80-fold growth rate in the first quarter of 2026.
OpenAI raised $122 billion in March 2026 with heavy backing from Microsoft, SoftBank and Nvidia. In May 2026, Anthropic raised its Series H-1 round at a $965 billion valuation. Meanwhile both companies forecast large cash burn rates as they scaled their computing resources to satisfy rapidly growing demand.
Due to increasing price competition among large language model providers – most recently to attract subscribers from prime startups, per the Wall Street Journal – and enterprise pressure to reduce AI spending, the cash burn rates of both companies are likely to rise.
OpenAI And Anthropic Key Investment Risks
OpenAI has very high operating costs. Despite growing revenue, OpenAI reported a loss of around $1.22 for every dollar it earned recently, driven by R&D and cloud payments to Microsoft. If inference costs do not drop significantly, OpenAI’s could be unprofitable well past 2030. Another risk facing investors is OpenAI’s copyright litigation from the New York Times.
While OpenAI’s cash burn rate is its biggest investment risk, Anthropic’s high valuation means that any sudden conflict with the Trump administration could slam its stock, or potentially make the stock more volatile.
While Anthropic’s revenue curve is steep, its $965 billion valuation requires continued growth and cost controls to justify. A significant risk lies in their reliance on a power balance between their two primary backers, Amazon and Google. A broader market cooling toward highly speculative AI IPOs or abrupt conflicts with the Trump administration could damage the value of Anthropic’s stock.
How Retail Investors Can Gain Exposure Before The IPOs
Retail investors looking to gain exposure to these companies prior to their IPOs may consider investing in the following:
- ETFs with private holdings. Some exchange-traded funds blend public equities with private pre-IPO stakes. For instance, the KraneShares Artificial Intelligence and Technology ETF (AGIX) currently holds pre-IPO shares of Anthropic.
- Buy stock in hyperscalers with stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic: Investors could buy shares of cloud providers hosting them. Investing in Microsoft offers a proxy to OpenAI’s growth, while Amazon and Google offer proxy exposure to Anthropic.
OpenAI and Anthropic are the leading AI chatbots and they are eyeing to go public soon. Investors should consider whether the companies are so eager to go public because they have tapped out the private capital markets which may be tired of funding their business models. However, if these companies go public and keep introducing successful new products that spur faster-than-expected growth, their stock prices will likely keep rising.
