A monthslong, costly disruption to global shipping could soon end now that the Houthi insurgents in Yemen have signaled that they have suspended their attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
But any return to normality may take a while. Shipping lines say they will only go back to the Red Sea once they are convinced their vessels will not be attacked. That may take time as the Houthis have pledged to renew their assaults if the Israel-Hamas cease-fire breaks down or if the Houthis are targeted by Israel or the United States and its allies.
Even if freighters return to the Red Sea, the waterway between the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal, it could take time for shipping companies to fully rejig their operations, some analysts say.
The Houthis’ attacks on shipping started in late 2023 soon after the war began between Hamas and Israel. The Houthis announced last weekend that the group would halt its attacks.
To avoid Houthi drones and missiles, shipping companies mostly stopped going through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Instead, vessels went around Africa’s southern tip to get to Europe from Asia. That route is some 3,500 nautical miles and 10 days longer than going through the Suez, contributing to steep rises in shipping costs.
“The situation in the Suez Canal remains fluid and the security situation is unclear,” MSC, a large Swiss shipping company, said in a statement, adding that it would continue using the longer route for now.
Maersk, a Danish shipping giant, said it would start sailing through the Red Sea when doing so was safe. “It is still too early to speculate about timing, but these developments are a needed step in the right direction,” the company said in an email.
Analysts said such caution was understandable.
“They would not want to go through the process of switching all of their services to the Suez only to have it ultimately prove unsafe, then have to change everything back,” said Greg Miller, a senior maritime reporter for Lloyd’s List, a trade publication.
The diversion of vessels has been one of the biggest shipping upheavals in recent times. Before the Houthi attacks, the Suez Canal handled 10 percent of world trade and more than a fifth of container shipments, according to the United Nations.
The Houthis carried out some 130 attacks on commercial ships, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, a crisis monitoring organization.
Some commercial vessels continued using the Red Sea, but most stayed away. A French logistics company, CMA CGM, sent most of its vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, but the company ran a weekly service through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. As a result, analysts said, CMA CGM might be the first container line to return in earnest.
“CMA CGM is closely monitoring the ongoing developments in the region and hopes for a return to stability and safety for all,” the company said in a statement.
Because going around Africa takes more time, shipping lines added more vessels and trips so, after an initial adjustment, customers still got their cargo on time. Fortunately, the companies had ordered scores of new vessels in 2021 and 2022, when they were flush with profits from the pandemic-era trade boom. With plenty of demand for those new vessels, shipping rates rose.
Now, shipping companies may face having too many vessels because each can complete trips faster. That could push down freight rates. The average cost of shipping a container is down 30 percent from the high of last year, according to Freightos, a digital marketplace for shipping, but it is still nearly 200 percent more than before the attacks started.
Some analysts say there may be a logjam of ships in some places as companies move vessels from the longer to the shorter route.
“You’re going to have too many ships at sea all at the same time,” said Salvatore Mercogliano, a maritime historian and an associate professor at Campbell University in North Carolina. “And they would much rather come in and anchor and sit there, so what you’re going to start to see is some congestion in the ports.”
But others said the industry would be fine.
“With the return to the Suez route, shipping lines have already had time to plan for the change, so any transitional disruptions should theoretically be more limited and manageable,” Mr. Miller of Lloyd’s List said.
More ships going through the Suez Canal would provide a welcomed relief to businesses that have contended with the delays and soaring shipping rates for five years. In addition to the Houthi attacks, shipping was disrupted by the pandemic trade boom, reduced crossings at the Panama Canal and labor unrest at ports on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States.
Another challenge may be coming. Mr. Mercogliano said President Trump’s threat of tariffs could prompt American businesses to order more foreign parts and goods ahead of new duties, jamming ports with containers and keeping shipping rates high. “There’s so much in flux currently,” he said.
