Election analysts are still puzzling over the surprising gains that President-elect Donald Trump made in securing a second term, especially as traditionally Democratic groups shifted to the Republican side.
Most notably, Trump saw increased support from Hispanic, Black and women voters compared to 2020. That’s despite running against Kamala Harris, a woman of Black and Indian heritage, while also facing backlash from Latinos after his Madison Square Rally, where a comedian called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.”
Meanwhile, Democrats were also faulted for abandoning working-class voters, while Trump’s strong support among Gen Z men was notable as well.
But prior to Election Day, polling expert Frank Luntz identified a group that cuts across race, gender, and class, saying “paycheck-to-paycheck” voters would be key. And in an interview with News Nation after the election, he said that voting bloc handed Trump his win.
“That’s in fact exactly what happened, and this is a group that has been voting Democrats since I’ve been alive,” he said. “And Trump is the first Republican able to coalesce them.”
He reiterated that when it comes to paycheck-to-paycheck voters, traditional categories like ethnicity and gender don’t matter.
Indeed, Starr County, Texas, which is 97% Latino, went Republican for first time in 128 years, breaking the longest Democratic voting streak in the country, according to News Nation.
Elsewhere, Anson County, N.C., which is 40% African American, voted GOP for only the second time since Reconstruction. And Bucks County, Pa., an upper-income suburb outside Philadelphia, went Republican for the first time in more than 35 years.
“If you’re a paycheck-to-paycheck voter struggling every week or every month, you are more likely to consider and to actually vote for Donald Trump than in anytime since Ronald Reagan in 1984,” Luntz said.
Working-class voters aren’t the only ones living paycheck to paycheck. According to a Bank of America note last month, one in five households earning at least $150,000 a year are living that way due to higher expenses.
Across the board, there’s been a rise in the share of paycheck-to-paycheck households since 2019, BofA said. One in four households fits the bill.
The economy and inflation were top of mind for voters, who largely blamed President Joe Biden and Harris, his vice president. That’s despite the annual rate of consumer inflation coming down sharply from its 9% peak in 2022. But a slower pace of price hikes is little consolation for consumers still paying much more overall than they were prior to the pandemic.
That prompted voters to look for someone to upend the status quo, and they gravitated toward Trump for his tough talk and uncompromising attitude, regardless of how they felt about him personally, Luntz explained.
“The voters who voted for him trust him to bring about the change that he’s promised,” he added. “They trust him to make a fundamental and meaningful, measurable difference in the way Washington works.”
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