The geography behind a plan to ship natural gas from the North Slope of Alaska to Asia makes good sense. Alaska has vast stores of gas and is just a little over a week at sea from Asia, which has some of the world’s biggest importers of liquefied natural gas.
But those countries have long been wary of the enormous cost of building the infrastructure to make it happen. That has contributed to a decades-long standstill.
Now, Asian buyers are giving the Alaska natural gas project a second look.
Their pivot was driven not by a change in the underlying economics, but by an abrupt political shift in Washington, where President Trump is pressuring countries to buy more American energy and appears bent on tapping Alaskan reserves.
Under threat of new tariffs, officials and executives in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are considering ways to participate in the plan called Alaska L.N.G. The $44 billion project involves constructing an 800-mile pipeline from fields north of the Arctic Circle to southern Alaska. From there, the gas would be cooled to liquid form and shipped to Asia.
In Japan, a state-owned bank and a government-backed energy group have been exploring whether to provide financing and investment for Alaska L.N.G., according to three people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss plans that are in their early stages.
In Taiwan, the economy ministry said this month that the state-owned energy company, CPC, would be interested in buying Alaskan natural gas. South Korean energy companies are considering ways they could support the Alaska project by agreeing to buy gas or make upfront investments, one of the people said.
Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are among a number of nations, including members of the European Union, that have expressed interest in buying more U.S. oil and gas to narrow trade gaps that put them at risk of U.S. tariffs. One factor in their calculation in how to placate Mr. Trump: Any contracts they sign to buy gas from Alaska L.N.G. are likely to commit them for decades.
Many see Alaska L.N.G. as a long shot. It’s not only expensive but would take years to build. The pipeline would have to traverse harsh Arctic terrain, making maintenance difficult. Given the ecological sensitivity of the state’s North Slope region, the Biden administration had issued a number of protections aimed at shielding it from drilling.
That Alaska L.N.G. is getting serious consideration shows how, just over a month into his presidency, Mr. Trump is already beginning to make potentially lasting marks on the U.S. energy industry. He has vowed to slow its shift toward renewable energies like solar and wind and restore momentum for fossil fuels despite concerns over climate change. The Alaska project would be one of the largest energy investments in U.S. history.
Under the Trump administration, U.S. energy deals “have gone from being purely business decisions to being considered as diplomatic measures,” said Takafumi Yanagisawa, an executive analyst at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, a think tank. A project that seemed extremely difficult a few years ago, he said, “is now looking more possible given the significant political momentum.”
In a statement, the state-owned Japan Bank for International Cooperation said it would consider providing support for Alaska L.N.G., depending on factors such as the extent of involvement by Japanese companies. The government energy group, the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, did not respond to a request for comment.
For Japan, the Alaska project could be used to replace L.N.G. purchased from Russia. Shipping L.N.G. to Asia from Alaska would also be cheaper and quicker than importing it from other places in the United States like Texas or Louisiana, which requires tankers to navigate the congested Panama Canal.
One big factor that has held Alaska L.N.G. back is the development cost. The project has been viewed as prohibitively expensive, roughly double the price tag of other major projects in the United States. In addition, Alaska L.N.G. very likely couldn’t begin shipping gas until the early 2030s, a timeline that has sat uncomfortably with pledges from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
For years, delegations of Alaskan officials traveled to Tokyo and Seoul seeking support, but major buyers expressed little interest in Alaska L.N.G. Government energy officials also gave the project the cold shoulder.
Then, on his first day in office, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at “unleashing” Alaska’s energy potential, including the pipeline proposal. Japanese executives seeking clarity on U.S. energy policy were shown a document outlining the administration’s priorities that they were told might be reflected in Mr. Trump’s first address to Congress, which is set for Tuesday. It included a weighty section promoting development in Alaska’s North Slope, according to a copy viewed by The New York Times.
Before Japan’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, met with Mr. Trump in February, advisers recommended that he emphasize Japan’s willingness to buy American L.N.G. as a diplomatic gesture.
During the Washington visit, Mr. Ishiba publicly acknowledged Japan’s interest in buying more American gas but avoided directly addressing Alaska L.N.G. Mr. Trump said at a news conference that Japan would soon begin importing record amounts of American L.N.G.
“We’re talking about the pipeline in Alaska,” Mr. Trump said. “We’re talking about a joint venture of some type.”
Mr. Trump did not elaborate, but officials in Japan suggested that the formation of such an entity could help Glenfarne, the U.S. energy and infrastructure developer behind Alaska L.N.G., share the project’s high upfront costs.
In Japan, government officials have been in talks with Japan’s big trading companies, including Mitsubishi and Mitsui, to gauge their interest in investing, two people familiar with the discussions said, speaking on the condition of anonymity while discussing the private outreach.
Mitsui executives have said they are considering the Alaska L.N.G. project’s potential but stressed that more information was needed to assess its cost competitiveness. Mitsubishi, which is focused on another major L.N.G. project in Canada, has been more reluctant.
In Japan, and likely elsewhere, the more significant challenge may be securing buyers willing to sign long-term agreements to purchase gas from Alaska L.N.G. In addition to having concerns over costs, Japan’s major gas buyers worry about how the project might fare under a future administration, said two people familiar with their thinking, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss plans that are not final.
Japanese buyers are also in a difficult position because of their own carbon-neutrality targets, the two people said. Japan tends to buy L.N.G. in 20-year contracts, but the government has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050. The Alaska project isn’t expected to ship liquefied natural gas until 2031 or later.
Over the months ahead, Alaska L.N.G. might draw backing from Asian government-linked groups, said Mr. Yanagisawa of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan. But public support alone will not be enough, and private companies will need more time to size up the project’s latest economics, he said.
“Given the political support, there is now room for companies to at least consider investment,” Mr. Yanagisawa said. “Still, this is a long-term project that will last 20 to 30 years, so we must also think beyond Trump’s presidency and consider what may come after.”
Hisako Ueno and Kiuko Notoya contributed reporting.
